Author: David Dory
Date: 12:38:44 02/22/02
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On February 22, 2002 at 14:33:07, Paul Doire wrote: >If Bobby Fisher at his peak was about 2800 elo and now Kasparov >is about 2820 elo (+/- 20-30 elo)....then GM's haven't improved >nearly as much as programs have over the last 20-30 years. > >Isn't it quite likely that at the current rate of improvement for >computer chess (just looking at the last 10 years)...that inevitably >between advances in hardware and software a computer will be world champion >caliber and/or World Champion in less than another 10 years? > >Even if GM's improve they will not improve at nearly the same pace as computer >chess . > >Paul Chris and Ali have said it well. There is no doubt that computers will be quite dominant within 10 years. Not just winning versus the occassional GM, or tournament, but whomping the top GM's, 95 per cent of the time, at least. Hardware alone will give us most of this increase, But I believe the * REAL * increase in playing strength will be generated by a software change. When that change is implemented, humans will no longer dream of beating a top commercial chess program on a powerful, home computer. It would be as interesting as running a foot race with a race car. Dave
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