Author: Fernando Villegas
Date: 10:46:43 06/29/98
Go up one level in this thread
On June 29, 1998 at 02:33:49, Mark Young wrote: >On June 28, 1998 at 17:19:27, Fernando Villegas wrote: > >>Hi all: >>I am sure nobody of you guys is going to argue against my new "preliminary" >>conclusion: probably I was in state on deep drukness when I wrote about my >>preliminaty conclusions. Yes, it seems I forgot some simple maths to begin with. >>But even so, on the wrong ground and with thewrong reasosn I still have the >>feeling this industry is facing very hard times. Too much products, too little >>the market. I would love to know -but I doubt they are goig to tell us nothing, >>of course- what programmers thinks of this, whcih has been his results, hgow >>good or bad the business they begun, how much they sold, etc. Sure, we'll never >>know. >>Fernando > >I don’t know why you look on this as a bad thing, if your conclusions are right. >If there are too many products out, that’s because someone thinks they can make >money in the current market place. This also has the effect of keeping prices >low and the quality high. >I can buy today a much better program then I could 5 years ago at the same or >cheaper price. If this is the sad state of affaires the chess programming market >place is in. I will take it. Hi Mark: Well, in this issue I think I am right at least this time, not you. Let me explain: in the first place, in this or in any industry there is a difference between what the entepreneurs want to get or believe they will get and the results they finnally get. So, the fact that a lot of people has begun a business in chess programming does not means it is a healthy busines at all. The economy of every country and in any area of economy is full of new adventures that goes wrong. That's the core of free enterprise after all. In any time a lot of people makes wrong calculations or does not calculate nothing or are badly guided by changeable facts or just they push forward without too much reasonning. And then there is people that begin a business because they hace powerfull sychological reasons, such as the simple pleasure they get from his craft or business, the reputation they seek, etc, and so they are willing to riks a failure. The abundance of programmer trying his hand in this is not a test of a healthy industry and so is not a refutation of my feeling. In the second place, Mark, I cannot consider good thing to consummers the fact they can take advantage because excesive competition keeps prices very low. And are they so low? I think the real benefice is to get reasonable prices that also gives the producer the oportunity to keep in business and keep himself being a competitor inside the business, or they will disappear and then the guy that survives wil take revenge. The problem here is that prices are not low, but even not being low are not enoguh to keep people in business. I insist that in this matter the only valid opinion is from programmers dedicated to this business, but we are not going to get it. Nevertheless, trhere are some facts that are contrary to yoiur idea we, customers, are living in the best of the worlds. The case of Hirsch, Kittinger -that it seem does not poduces his own software anymore, but as employee of Sierra-, Martyn Bryant, Johan de Konning etc and the demise of one magazine after other, one tournamebt after another, is a sample and sign that things are are getting more difficult in the side of the suppliers of everything althought not yet in the side of consummers. I suppose that in the end, as in any industry, just a few will survive and so the great diversity of products you mention, will disappear. Any case, I would like to be wrong in this as in may other issues. I want the same than you, diversity and affordable prices. I don want to see the commercial death on any of theses talented guys. Happy week end Fernando
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