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Subject: Re: Let's say Over 2300

Author: Joshua Lee

Date: 23:49:48 03/05/02

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Ok really Any program as strong as Rebel Century is over 2300 but let me put
this in perspective : Rebel lost two games for which it performed 400elo less
than it's opponent. Rebel won two games but how many people can Beat Rebel.
To beat Rebel once in 1000 games you would have to be within 399.2elo
We don't yet know exatly what Rebel's elo would be so for safety's sake 2697
because that's what it's performance was. To beat Van Wely 1 out of 100 games
Rebel would have to be atleast 2305 , 1 game out of 50  : 2313elo  , 1 game in
10 : 2377elo , we don't know how the performance would turn out if 20+ games
were played but what if rebel lost the rest +2 -22  which equates to 2363elo
So in my opinion more games are needed to get a more accurate picture.
To win 2 out of 1000 Rebel had to be atleast 2298elo  (within 398.4elo) , 2 out
of 100  2313elo (within 384) 2 out of 50 2329 (within 368), 2 out of 25 2361elo
(within 336) I can say for sure that Rebel is over 2300 but by how much??
To win 2 out of 6 Rebel would have to be 2563 (within 134 elo)
So to recap Rebel is within 800elo 1897  too low , within 400 ..2297elo  this
still sounds too low ....
To win 2 out of 8 Rebel Had to be atleast 2497 (within 200elo) this sounds right
as well as 2377.  2 out of 10 means that rebel is 2457 or within 240elo)
this sound reasonable as Rebel would have to be somewhere within 300elo to score
a win in the first place and secondly Rebel had played many other GM's on weaker
Hardware and it's average after many games was over 2400

To beat rebel one would have to be within 400elo of whatever rating it is,
There are 3009 people on the FIDE list with a rating of 2377 so I would like to
see more games or i would like to see if it can get an actual FIDE rating.

I didn't figure out draws so it could be very acurate even with the four games
but it is possible that there are lots of draws , and a few more wins maybe one
more


It would've been nice if just one more game had been played as even if Rebel
Lost this would put it at 2617 performance and in my opinion more than 4 games
is always necessary to tell if one player is stronger than the other. I think
Statistics Agree.

I would like to hear what others think the outcome would be if more games are
played.



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