Author: ALI MIRAFZALI
Date: 12:52:50 03/06/02
Go up one level in this thread
On March 06, 2002 at 02:49:48, Joshua Lee wrote: >Ok really Any program as strong as Rebel Century is over 2300 but let me put >this in perspective : Rebel lost two games for which it performed 400elo less >than it's opponent. Rebel won two games but how many people can Beat Rebel. >To beat Rebel once in 1000 games you would have to be within 399.2elo >We don't yet know exatly what Rebel's elo would be so for safety's sake 2697 >because that's what it's performance was. To beat Van Wely 1 out of 100 games >Rebel would have to be atleast 2305 , 1 game out of 50 : 2313elo , 1 game in >10 : 2377elo , we don't know how the performance would turn out if 20+ games >were played but what if rebel lost the rest +2 -22 which equates to 2363elo >So in my opinion more games are needed to get a more accurate picture. >To win 2 out of 1000 Rebel had to be atleast 2298elo (within 398.4elo) , 2 out >of 100 2313elo (within 384) 2 out of 50 2329 (within 368), 2 out of 25 2361elo >(within 336) I can say for sure that Rebel is over 2300 but by how much?? >To win 2 out of 6 Rebel would have to be 2563 (within 134 elo) >So to recap Rebel is within 800elo 1897 too low , within 400 ..2297elo this >still sounds too low .... >To win 2 out of 8 Rebel Had to be atleast 2497 (within 200elo) this sounds right >as well as 2377. 2 out of 10 means that rebel is 2457 or within 240elo) >this sound reasonable as Rebel would have to be somewhere within 300elo to score >a win in the first place and secondly Rebel had played many other GM's on weaker >Hardware and it's average after many games was over 2400 > >To beat rebel one would have to be within 400elo of whatever rating it is, >There are 3009 people on the FIDE list with a rating of 2377 so I would like to >see more games or i would like to see if it can get an actual FIDE rating. > >I didn't figure out draws so it could be very acurate even with the four games >but it is possible that there are lots of draws , and a few more wins maybe one >more > > >It would've been nice if just one more game had been played as even if Rebel >Lost this would put it at 2617 performance and in my opinion more than 4 games >is always necessary to tell if one player is stronger than the other. I think >Statistics Agree. > >I would like to hear what others think the outcome would be if more games are >played. If more games were played the GM would have been crushed completely.AS I have said before you underestimate Computers immensely.
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