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Subject: Chess Programming OncomingCrisis (it was NEW Preliminary conclusion)

Author: Fernando Villegas

Date: 11:36:23 06/30/98

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Hi Mark:
My logic, that it seem you don't see, is very simple: is based in the fact tah
chess programming market is different altoguether to any other market, where
your logic obviously would be correct. Chess programming is not a case of
automobile or computers hardware. The programmers that you say are the focus of
my reasonnig are not just a sample of a great number of commercial -commercial-
chess programmers, not just the guys I love and care as you out it, but are
almost all the producer market in itself. Ed, Amir and the rest could say, as
Louis XIV, "the market is me" or at most, "the market is us". Certainly always
there will be people coming with a new poduct, I am not forecasting a final and
definitive closing of the entire industry; I am no preaching armagedon.  I am
just saying that as much the producer side of the market is almost enterily in
the hands of the known names, then if they get problems due top a lack of
consummer, automatically all de industy that is coinidental with them is in
problems.
Else: Am I proposing a corporative defense of the stablished names? No. I am
saying that a crisis is at hand due to the peculiarities of this market. I am
not saying that if Ed goes in bankrupcy chess programmmins will disappear from
the Earth. Let me say it another way: I am saying that chess programming could
follow the same path that has been followed by computer industry in general,
where diversity is little by little being vanished due to the intrincacies of
the market. How many OS better than windows has been trashed due to the
predominance of the big names? Has it been good for consummers? In our case, the
intrincacy consist that too few consummer must face too much producers. I hope
you will share with me that I am right in that. And if that extreme competition
is going to be good for all, not only consummer as you say, well, all finnaly
depends of the values and preferences from which you evaluate. Maybe is better
two or thee companies hiring a lot of programmers that a lot of programmers
trying to get money with his own companies. I just wanted to sign the fact of an
oncoming crisis and with it a sure change of the entire structure of all we
know.
Regards
fernando



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