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Subject: Re: How Much Stronger is Deepblue then Todays Computers?

Author: Slater Wold

Date: 11:45:18 03/13/02

Go up one level in this thread


On March 13, 2002 at 14:25:32, Uri Blass wrote:

>On March 13, 2002 at 12:44:25, Slater Wold wrote:
>
>>On March 13, 2002 at 12:39:21, Uri Blass wrote:
>>
>>>On March 13, 2002 at 11:56:59, Slater Wold wrote:
>>>
>>>>On March 13, 2002 at 11:41:42, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On March 13, 2002 at 10:16:56, Slater Wold wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On March 13, 2002 at 07:26:08, Chris Carson wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On March 13, 2002 at 04:09:54, Jerry Doby wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>It's hard to believe that anything can be that much strongeer then fritz7 on a
>>>>>>>>fast platform. Is deepblue 100 elo or above deepfritz on an xp 2000
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>OK, I will bite and get a debate going most likely.  First take a look at:
>>>>>>>http://home.interact.se/~w100107/manmachine.htm
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Tony's page has the results for both Top programs today and Deep Blue.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Here is a brief comparison:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Deep Blue 97  2862   6 games
>>>>>>>Chess Tiger   2788  11 games
>>>>>>>Deep Junior   2702   9 games
>>>>>>>Rebel Cen     2697   4 games
>>>>>>>Deep Fritz    2678  12 games
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>None of the Commercial programs are on fastest HW today.  Deep Blue only played
>>>>>>>6 games against one opponent that did not get to prepare (Rebel opponent played
>>>>>>>100 games against Rebel before the match).  My guess is that Deep Blue rating
>>>>>>>would drop by 100 to 200 points if put to a serious test.  The Commercial
>>>>>>>programs would be 100 points stronger on fastest HW.  So they are about the same
>>>>>>>or slight favorite to the commercials.  I think Rebel, Tiger on fastest single
>>>>>>>processors and Deep F/J on fastest mps would beat DB 97 in a match.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>My conclusion is that 5 years after the match, the commercial programs rule.  I
>>>>>>>think that the gap was closed a couple of years ago.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The thinking here just blows my mind.  I cannot even begin to *imagine* why
>>>>>>people would say something so silly.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>You're talking about a chess program, that used the _same_ exact search
>>>>>>techniques that are used in 80% of the top engines today.  While 5 years worth
>>>>>>of research probably makes todays top commercial engines more "refined", but
>>>>>>when it comes down to it, they are basically the same.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>With that said, now imagine your search is 100x faster.  That has _GOT_ to be
>>>>>>worth some ELO.  200M nps vs Fritz 7's 1M nps (on today's top HW) is hardly
>>>>>>comparable.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Just use the rule of HW speed.  2x the mhz is usually worth about 50 ELO.  It
>>>>>>wouldn't take much to get 250 ELO out of the speed of DB.
>>>>>
>>>>>You forget that programs got 200 elo only by software in the last years.
>>>>>The best commercial program in 1997 is 200 elo weaker than the best program of
>>>>>today in the same hardware.
>>>>>
>>>>>If you remember that there may be diminishing return at higher depthes then it
>>>>>is not clear that the best programs of 1997 with 200M nodes per second are
>>>>>better than the program of today with the hardware of today.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Another point is that I guess that deeper blue used some ideas that
>>>>>are probably not good.
>>>>>
>>>>>Nobody use singular extensions in the way that deeper blue used them.
>>>>>Ferret use them but not in the way that deeper blue used them.
>>>>>
>>>>>Crafty18.12 used the deep blue extension.
>>>>>Crafty18.13 does not use it.
>>>>>
>>>>>Why?
>>>>>
>>>>>If the ideas of deeper blue were good then
>>>>>I expect at least part of the other programmers to learn from the ideas
>>>>>and to use them.
>>>>>
>>>>>Uri
>>>>
>>>>W R O N G.
>>>>
>>>>DB used *certain* extensions ONLY because it had the overhead to do so.  You
>>>>have a *LOT* of things to play with when you're getting 200M nps, versus 1M nps.
>>>> Crafty getting 200M nps with DB extensions MIGHT have worked better.  Getting
>>>>1.2M nps on Hyatt's machine, it did not.  Apples to oranges.
>>>>
>>>>Programs have gotten 200 ELO stronger in the last 5 years huh?  Get real.  The
>>>>_ONLY_ thing that has changed is HW, and ALL the top programmers will tell you
>>>>that.  Computer chess advancements are 20% software, 80% hardware.
>>>
>>>please look at
>>>http://www.geocities.com/chessfun_1999/rating.html
>>>
>>>Fritz7 is almost 200 elo better
>>>than Fritz4 and more than 200 elo better than Fritz5.
>>>
>>>Fritz7 is about 250 elo better than Junior4.6 and Junior4.6 was the world
>>>champion in 1997 some months after the match of kasparov-deeper blue.
>>>
>>>I believe that computer chess advancement in the last 5 years are
>>>50% software and 50% hardware.
>>>
>>>Uri
>>
>>Well, I won't argue over 30%.  But that list is *no* good.  For several reasons:
>>
>>1.) DB was _never_ intended to play other computers.  EVER.
>
>I know
>This is the reason that they never released it so kasparov could not train
>against it when it is not the same with the commercial programs.
>
>I can agree that deeper blue was better than the top programs of today against
>humans because it was not known.
>>
>>2.) This is on *CURRENT* HW.  Ever try to use Shredder 6 on a Pentium Pro 200?
>
>I believe that one of the advantage of the new programs is that they earn more
>from time relative to old programs thanks to the fact that programmers found
>better search techniques so I expect the gap to be bigger with faster hardware
>or long time control.
>>
>>3.) There is a HUGE thread below this one, about Fritz 5.32 being *much* better
>>than Fritz 7.
>
>This opinion seems to be wrong

First lesson in life:  Opinions can _NEVER_ be wrong.  Get that, and you'll live
a lot longer.  ;)

>Fritz5.32 is also not from the time of deeper blue and I think it is from 1999
>2 years after deep blue.
>
>The right comparison is between Fritz or Genius of 1997 and Fritz7.
>
>Uri



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