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Subject: Re: How Much Stronger is Deepblue then Todays Computers?

Author: Slater Wold

Date: 12:02:37 03/13/02

Go up one level in this thread


On March 13, 2002 at 14:49:30, Fernando Villegas wrote:

>On March 13, 2002 at 13:16:14, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On March 13, 2002 at 12:30:15, Slater Wold wrote:
>>
>>>On March 13, 2002 at 12:13:49, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>>On March 13, 2002 at 11:41:42, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On March 13, 2002 at 10:16:56, Slater Wold wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On March 13, 2002 at 07:26:08, Chris Carson wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On March 13, 2002 at 04:09:54, Jerry Doby wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>It's hard to believe that anything can be that much strongeer then fritz7 on a
>>>>>>>>fast platform. Is deepblue 100 elo or above deepfritz on an xp 2000
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>OK, I will bite and get a debate going most likely.  First take a look at:
>>>>>>>http://home.interact.se/~w100107/manmachine.htm
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Tony's page has the results for both Top programs today and Deep Blue.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Here is a brief comparison:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Deep Blue 97  2862   6 games
>>>>>>>Chess Tiger   2788  11 games
>>>>>>>Deep Junior   2702   9 games
>>>>>>>Rebel Cen     2697   4 games
>>>>>>>Deep Fritz    2678  12 games
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>None of the Commercial programs are on fastest HW today.  Deep Blue only played
>>>>>>>6 games against one opponent that did not get to prepare (Rebel opponent played
>>>>>>>100 games against Rebel before the match).  My guess is that Deep Blue rating
>>>>>>>would drop by 100 to 200 points if put to a serious test.  The Commercial
>>>>>>>programs would be 100 points stronger on fastest HW.  So they are about the same
>>>>>>>or slight favorite to the commercials.  I think Rebel, Tiger on fastest single
>>>>>>>processors and Deep F/J on fastest mps would beat DB 97 in a match.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>My conclusion is that 5 years after the match, the commercial programs rule.  I
>>>>>>>think that the gap was closed a couple of years ago.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>The thinking here just blows my mind.  I cannot even begin to *imagine* why
>>>>>>people would say something so silly.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>You're talking about a chess program, that used the _same_ exact search
>>>>>>techniques that are used in 80% of the top engines today.  While 5 years worth
>>>>>>of research probably makes todays top commercial engines more "refined", but
>>>>>>when it comes down to it, they are basically the same.
>
>
>
>Sorry to interrupt you with the akward voice of a layman, but I wonder if in
>this lines of yours rsides the core of this debate. Prhaps what you call the
>"refined" aspect of new programs is a lot more esential than what the word
>suggest. Refination sound as "the same, but perhaps with some embellishments".
>Nevertheless, from certain level to upstairs, differences in chess are a matter
>of "refinements". The microscopic point of this pawn here, the evanescent issue
>of this bishop behind the pawns, etc. You can even say that the difference
>between a good expert level player and a GM is, although enormous in the terrain
>of results, a matter of refinements inthe analysis of move by move. Refinemens
>are everything wen high chess is on stake. And for the same token, perhaps the
>concept  of "basically the same" should be ... refined. Basically all of us use
>our legs in the same way, but there was only one Nureyev. Maybe a matter of
>refinement.
>My very best
>Fernando

Good point.  But I was, for the most part, speaking on the most basic aspect of
the search.  The heart.  Look at the changes from Rebel Century 3 to Rebel
Century 4.  There's not a *whole* lot of changes.  Just the simple optimazation
here and there.  And while they *do* add up, over 5 years, you're only talking 2
or 3 versions.  The "refinements" made from Windows 95 has given us Windows ME.
Not a *whole* lot of changes.  Just refinements.

Any chess master will tell you, going from 2300 to 2500 is a lot more than a few
refinements.  That's a world of difference.

>>>>>>
>>>>>>With that said, now imagine your search is 100x faster.  That has _GOT_ to be
>>>>>>worth some ELO.  200M nps vs Fritz 7's 1M nps (on today's top HW) is hardly
>>>>>>comparable.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Just use the rule of HW speed.  2x the mhz is usually worth about 50 ELO.  It
>>>>>>wouldn't take much to get 250 ELO out of the speed of DB.
>>>>>
>>>>>You forget that programs got 200 elo only by software in the last years.
>>>>>The best commercial program in 1997 is 200 elo weaker than the best program of
>>>>>today in the same hardware.
>>>>>
>>>>>If you remember that there may be diminishing return at higher depthes then it
>>>>>is not clear that the best programs of 1997 with 200M nodes per second are
>>>>>better than the program of today with the hardware of today.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Another point is that I guess that deeper blue used some ideas that
>>>>>are probably not good.
>>>>>
>>>>>Nobody use singular extensions in the way that deeper blue used them.
>>>>>Ferret use them but not in the way that deeper blue used them.
>>>>>
>>>>>Crafty18.12 used the deep blue extension.
>>>>>Crafty18.13 does not use it.
>>>>
>>>>This is incorrect.  No published version of crafty has ever used singular
>>>>extensions.
>>>
>>>I think he was talking about the check extensions you used in 18.12.  And then
>>>removed in 18.13
>>
>>It wasn't an "extension", it was a different "limit" on how extensions could
>>be applied...
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>
>>>>I don't see what "using SE in the way DB used them" has _anything_ to do with
>>>>this discussion.  Singular extensions are singular extensions.  They did a
>>>>better implementation that what is being used by Bruce.  Their implementation is
>>>>also _far_ more complex in terms of coding.  It certainly doesn't mean their
>>>>SE implementation is "defective" and this reasoning escapes me totally...
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Why?
>>>>>
>>>>>If the ideas of deeper blue were good then
>>>>>I expect at least part of the other programmers to learn from the ideas
>>>>>and to use them.
>>>>
>>>>And who knows what "other programmers" are doing?  I've tried them.  They
>>>>worked well in Cray Blitz.  They don't (so far) work so well in Crafty.  Others
>>>>are using various implementations of them (Ferret, Diep, WchessX, Genius, who
>>>>knows who else).
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>Uri
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>I don't consider it very scientific to say "I haven't seen this work so it
>>>>must not be very good..."  It _might_ be that the implementations have been
>>>>poor while the idea was very good.  Or vice-versa.



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