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Subject: Re: A theory of ratings drift for the SSDF

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 20:50:17 04/12/02

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On April 12, 2002 at 06:27:29, Sune Fischer wrote:

>On April 12, 2002 at 00:16:35, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>It _must_ affect both the rating of other players, and the "spread" to some
>>small degree.  A drop of water hitting the pond changes the depth everywhere
>>as the ripples propogate around and reflect...  Remember that the spread between
>>two player's ratings is a statistical average of how the two players do against
>>all other players in the pool.  Adding a new player can change this.  IE a
>>player joined our local club back in 1970, and he was rated 300 points above
>>me, yet I won the majority of games against him because our "styles" gave me
>>an advantage...  that obviously changed the spread between me and other players
>>in the club, yet I did no better (or worse) against them after the new player
>>arrived...
>>
>>
>
>Well as a short term effect this will send ripples up and down the ranks, but
>when they have decayed and you have gone back to playing games with the other
>players, you will share some of your won rating with them, or they will also
>beat the new guy.
>The lasting effect is just an indication of the usual uncertainties that applies
>to ratings, i.e. you where actually stronger than you thought if only you were
>able to increase your rating.
>
>The overall spread can't really change if the same formula is used, the pool
>will expand or subtract to fit the formula eventually.
>
>-S.

\
If chess were perfectly transitive that would be true, but it isn't.  I've
seen many cases where A beats B regularly, B beats C regularly, and C beats
A regularly.  When you change the pool, you can change _everything_.  Because
a rating within a pool factors in _all_ players within that pool.  That's why
absolute ratings mean nothing, and the "spread" between players in two different
pools means even less...  And finally, if you transplant player A and B
from one pool to another both their raw ratings and the spread between them
can change, easily.



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