Author: Russell Reagan
Date: 13:00:26 04/13/02
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On April 13, 2002 at 15:37:34, Mark Young wrote: >I am 99.9999% sure, GM Kramnik will crush Fritz 7. I think its a safe prediction >they way you state it. GM Kramnik will have the program he is playing for months >before the match. Any results other then a Crush by GM Kramnik will mean doom >for humans quicker then we thought. I'm not sure I agree that Kramnik will crush Fritz, or that Kramnik will even win. That's too hard to tell for me. But I do agree that if Kramnik loses, or if HE is the one that gets crushed, that it's probably over for the human team when playing computers. Of course, if he does lose, I'm sure there will be GM's saying that it was just a fluke, just like they did when Kasparov lost to Deep Blue. I think humans underestimate the computers generally. How many times after a human loses to a computer in a match do you hear some comment from the GM like, "I was very suprised by how well the programs played. By the end of the match I felt like I was getting a better feel for the program's style of play and I think that if I would have had another chance I would have been able to start winning some games." I think when humans lose to computers they think, "I just didn't play as well as I usually do." because computers have that style where they make moves that we don't really understand, and so it doesn't seem like the computer is really "winning". So the computer goes along making these seemingly meaningless moves and after a while we're in a position where we are in trouble, and we can't seem to figure out how we got there, so we just pass the loss off as "just a bad game" and think we would have won if we would have been playing our best chess. This is similar to the way a beginner makes a tactical error and instead of analyzing his game and trying to find out how he got into a position which led him to make the tactical error, he just passes off the loss and says, "I missed a fork" but doesn't really do anything to prevent the problem from occuring next time. Russell
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