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Subject: Re: Smirin vs. Shredder - a question

Author: Ratko V Tomic

Date: 11:00:39 04/15/02

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>But that information is completly subjective, hence,
>worthless for any solid objective conclusion.

If a GM plays a single game against a program and provides
an in-depth analysis of the program's flaws, that info is
much more valuable than a bare result, say, 72:28 you may
get from hundred games. It is objective in the sense that
most strong players would agree with it (they may add some
more observations, of course, so it is not a complete
information, but it is objective).

Also, the info provided by a GM is in the form which is much more
useful to the humans. It uses conceptual models which allow
for generalizations, useful for other players (as instruction
how to play against the program) and for programmers on how to
fix/improve the program. Playing hundred games between two programs
may tell you one is likely stronger than the other, but not exactly
what is the problem or how to improve the program.

To get anything barely comparable to the GM's evaluation you need to
play two small variations of the same program and attribute the resulting
score difference to the minor code change. Such process is vastly slower
and still not as useful as a GM advisor giving an insight of the good
and bad aspects of the change (from the game results you get only the
net results of the sum of pluses and minuses of a given change combined
with other unknowns, such as effects of choice of openings, opponent
style, etc).

Note also that subjective/objective distinction is itself subjective.
The "objective" merely takes for granted some 'postulates' (which by
themselves are 'subjective') and then deduces 'objective' conclusions.
In particular, the ELO system assumption of memoryless stochastic
process yielding the results of the games, while valid for coin tosses,
is certainly invalid for learning programs and humans.

Whether conclusion is 'solid' or 'soft'/'subjective'/'worthless' is
decided not by the lesser or greater appearance of rigour (as when
you leave the necessarily subjective 'postulates' unchallenged). It is
decided by subsequent results. If GM makes certain recomandations and
an opponent taking  advice starts winning more, then the model he is
proposing is as valuable and as solid as anything else which may have
an appearance of mathematical conclusion and results in the same degree
of improvement.



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