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Subject: Re: GM Smirin vs 4 comps - Match Predictions

Author: Peter Hegger

Date: 14:50:05 04/16/02

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On April 16, 2002 at 10:18:38, Chris Carson wrote:

>So Far:
>Sun   April 14 		Smirin-Shredder 1-0
>Mon  April 15 		Hiarcs-Smirin 	.5-.5
>
>My guess:
>Thu   April 18 		Smirin-Junior 	.5-.5
>Sun   April 21		Tiger-Smirin 	.5-.5
>Mon  April 22 		Shredder-Smirin .5-.5
>Wed  April 24 		Smirin-Hiarcs 	0-1
>Thu   April 25 		Junior-Smirin 	1-0
>Sun   April 28 		Smirin-Tiger 	.5-.5
>
>Final:  GM Smirin 4.5 – Comps  3.5 (est. TPR = 2652, each win worth 50 pts)

Hi,
Last time I posted a combined TPR for the machines (against Gulko)I was scorned
and ridiculed by the resident "experts" for doing such a silly thing. I'm glad
to see that others don't think it so silly after all.
Best regards,
Peter.

>
>My guess is that GM Smirin can win this match.  He is a strong player, will get
>rest on key days and has good incentive.    I think both Tiger and Junior can
>beat GM Smirin, however, Junior has the advantage of white the day after GM
>Smirin plays Hiarcs.  Tiger gets white after GM Smirin has a two day rest.
>Also, this next game is important for Junior to draw, GM Smirin has two days
>rest/preparation and should be ready for Junior.  The comps need to use non-CB
>openings or they are likely to pay a price.
>
>Also note that the 4 comps scored 5-3 against GM Gulko (2597) for a TPR of 2697,
>combine this with the “guess” above and the 16 game TPR for the 4 comp team
>would be somewhere between 2625 and 2675.  I would also “guess” that a TPR
>discussion will ensue on this board.
>
>This is just a guess, not based on anything other than a gut feeling.  Please
>post your thoughts.



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