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Subject: Re: GM Smirin vs 4 comps - Match Predictions

Author: Walter Koroljow

Date: 05:08:56 04/17/02

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On April 16, 2002 at 21:13:40, Miguel A. Ballicora wrote:

>On April 16, 2002 at 18:34:57, Walter Koroljow wrote:
>
>>Of course you can combine TPRs of different programs as per common sense.
>>
>>However, if you wish to be mathematically absolutely correct and precise, all
>>you need do is say, "The average of the programs' TPRs is ...".
>>
>>A little algebra will quickly show that the the average of the programs' TPRs is
>>exactly the TPR of the programs taken as a group.  This change of wording gives
>
>Actually, that is not correct.
>
>Regards,
>Miguel
>
>
I believe it is correct.  Here is a simple example: two programs play a human
rated 2700. Program 1 wins and program 2 loses.  then:

TPR1 = 2700 + (wins-losses)*400 = 2700+400 = 3100
TPR2 = 2700 + (wins-losses)*400 = 2700-400 = 2300
Average of two TPRs = (2700+400 + 2700-400)/2 = (2300 + 3100)/2 = 2700.

Notice that this is just 2700 + average of 400*(wins-losses).

On the other hand, the "team" TPR is:

2700 +(wins-losses)*400/2 = 2700 + (1-1)*400 = 2700.

This is also just 2700 + average of 400*(wins-losses).

This illustrates the general case:  in both cases the (wins-losses)*400 term is
averaged over all games.  Hence the same answer.

Best regards,

Walter

>
>
>>you an unassailable mathematical position.  And I think the common sense meaning
>>is not changed.  If you don't want to bother with this distinction, I won't
>>mind. :)
>>
>>Cheers,
>>
>>Walter
>>
>>P.S. Chris - When you say TPR, it would be nice to say whose TPR - Smirin's or
>>the programs'.



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