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Subject: Re: GM Smirin vs 4 comps - Match Predictions - Thanks! (nt)

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 08:16:30 04/17/02

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On April 17, 2002 at 10:48:03, Walter Koroljow wrote:

>On April 17, 2002 at 09:15:56, Chris Carson wrote:
>
>>On April 17, 2002 at 08:08:56, Walter Koroljow wrote:
>>
>>>On April 16, 2002 at 21:13:40, Miguel A. Ballicora wrote:
>>>
>>>>On April 16, 2002 at 18:34:57, Walter Koroljow wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>Of course you can combine TPRs of different programs as per common sense.
>>>>>
>>>>>However, if you wish to be mathematically absolutely correct and precise, all
>>>>>you need do is say, "The average of the programs' TPRs is ...".
>>>>>
>>>>>A little algebra will quickly show that the the average of the programs' TPRs is
>>>>>exactly the TPR of the programs taken as a group.  This change of wording gives
>>>>
>>>>Actually, that is not correct.
>>>>
>>>>Regards,
>>>>Miguel
>>>>
>>>>
>>>I believe it is correct.  Here is a simple example: two programs play a human
>>>rated 2700. Program 1 wins and program 2 loses.  then:
>>>
>>>TPR1 = 2700 + (wins-losses)*400 = 2700+400 = 3100
>>>TPR2 = 2700 + (wins-losses)*400 = 2700-400 = 2300
>>>Average of two TPRs = (2700+400 + 2700-400)/2 = (2300 + 3100)/2 = 2700.
>>>
>>>Notice that this is just 2700 + average of 400*(wins-losses).
>>>
>>>On the other hand, the "team" TPR is:
>>>
>>>2700 +(wins-losses)*400/2 = 2700 + (1-1)*400/2 = 2700. **
>>>
>>>This is also just 2700 + average of 400*(wins-losses).  **
>>>
>>>This illustrates the general case:  in both cases the (wins-losses)*400 term is
>>>averaged over all games.  Hence the same answer.
>>>
>>>Best regards,
>>>
>>>Walter
>>
>>This shows the spread 2300 to 3100 with a 2700 average.  Nice simple example.
>>
>>You left off the "/2" in your last two examples (check right hand side of "=" in
>>the next to last example, I put ** next to each).  This did not make a
>>difference since the "win-loss" was 0, but would if that were not the case.
>>
>
>Well, we are both half-right!  I left off the /2 in the first statement, but the
>word "average" implies the /2 in the second statement.
>
>By the way, congratulations on your degree and your new profession.  Best of
>luck to you.
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>you an unassailable mathematical position.  And I think the common sense meaning
>>>>>is not changed.  If you don't want to bother with this distinction, I won't
>>>>>mind. :)
>>>>>
>>>>>Cheers,
>>>>>
>>>>>Walter
>>>>>
>>>>>P.S. Chris - When you say TPR, it would be nice to say whose TPR - Smirin's or
>>>>>the programs'.



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