Author: Roy Eassa
Date: 11:54:58 04/17/02
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On April 17, 2002 at 14:19:02, Chris Carson wrote: >feel free to disagree with me. I am often wrong and people catch me at >it. :) I get frustrated too with the hype and carried away at times. > Chris, I like think my view is quite moderate and is not hype; do you agree? : I do not think we can be SURE whether or not PCs are truly 2650+ FIDE. I think that there is definitely SOME evidence that they are, but that there has simply not been a sufficient number of games against GMs who are relatively well-prepared and motivated. The evidence that exists does not come close to passing the typical requirements of a decent scientific experiment in which extraneous factors are well-controlled. (BTW, I DO think the top PC programs on the fastest PCs are more than 50% likely to be over 2500 FIDE.) Older GMs in particular have not spent a sufficient percentage of their in the presence of strong computers to be well prepared psychologically, much less to have developed very good anti-computer techniques. You have a PhD and obviously know what it means to really, intensely study some highly difficult topic for months and months (even years). One's knowledge and skill-set in that field grow enormously as a result of such work. I just don't think _any_ GMs have done substantial amounts of intense work thus far on anti-computer chess techniques. I think it's highly likely that at least a few younger GMs WILL undertake such an effort in the next 5 or 10 years, especially if there is any good motivation to do so (money, for example). Also, very young GMs will have spent a good chunk of their careers in the presence of strong PCs. Even though computers are getting faster all the time and the software is improving in its anti-human methods, I still think the scenario described above (SOME but certainly not ALL GMs really cracking down and becoming much better at anti-computer techniques) leads to a greater-than-50% likelihood that there will be at least SOME GMs (or strong IMs) in the next 10 years who will consistently outscore the top programs running on the fastest PCs. I think it is more in the style of hype when somebody says that humans will NEVER learn to do something (I am not saying that this is what YOU claim, but that some claim this). -Roy.
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