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Subject: Re: GM Smirin vs 4 comps - Match Predictions

Author: Roy Eassa

Date: 13:57:20 04/17/02

Go up one level in this thread


On April 17, 2002 at 16:36:03, Chris Carson wrote:

>On April 17, 2002 at 15:59:18, Roy Eassa wrote:
>
>>On April 17, 2002 at 15:48:49, Roy Eassa wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>A given computer's rating will go down significantly (even though it does not
>>>gain or lose one iota of strength objectively) if and when its human opponents
>>>gain anti-computer skills.
>>>
>>>Does that make sense?
>>>
>>>I guess early ratings are one thing and ACTUAL STRENGTH is a different thing
>>>that is much harder to measure (requiring much more scientifically controlled
>>>circumstances).
>>>
>>>For humans versus humans, the two things (rating and actual strength) have
>>>tradionally been closely related, except when the player is a young child who is
>>>improving very rapidly.
>>>
>>>There is significant reason to believe that RATING and actual STRENGTH can get
>>>*way* out of sync with each other when it comes to computers, due to the extreme
>>>relevance of the anti-computer skills (and not normal chess skills) of the
>>>humans they have faced.
>>
>>
>>
>>Also, most (nearly all?) computers that have gotten an early rating (using fixed
>>hardware and software) have seen that rating drop SIGNIFICANTLY over time, as
>>humans learn better how to play well against computers.
>>
>>Does that mean:
>>
>>a) The computer is getting steadily weaker at chess?  or
>>
>>b) Humans are quickly getting much better at chess?  or
>>
>>c) A computer's early rating is NOT an accurate reflection of the computer's
>>actual chess strength, but is SKEWED by the fact that humans lack a special
>>skill that is required in order for them to score accurately against computers
>>-- a skill that is SEPARATE and distinct from the traditional skill most human
>>chess players have focused on?
>>
>>d) Some other explaination (please fill in)?
>
>If a GM only prepares for one other GM and his rating rises against that GM but
>falls with respect to the other GM's what does that say?


That's actually a slightly different topic.

I was NOT actually referring to humans learning the weaknesses of a *specific*
program, but rather to the likelihood that most GMs will improve their overall
anti-computer abilities with time, and SOME of them will improve this ability a
LOT.

Take a strong program running on a fast PC -- I'll agree with you that it could
get a 'rating' of 2700 in current GM matches -- and put the only copy of it in a
vault for 6 years.  Let no human play it or study it during that time.  Let the
best 3 anti-computer GMs of the year 2008 play matches against it.

I think there's a very significant probability that that SAME program running on
that SAME hardware would then achieve a rating of 2500.  Did it get 200 points
weaker sitting in the vault?

I contend that the reason computers IN GENERAL have done as well as they have
against GMs in the past 2 years is that GMs have in general not learned a
necessary skill -- one that is SEPARATE from traditional chess skill -- that is
required ALONG WITH their chess skill in order to play computers.  The reason
GMs have not learned this skill is simply that it has not been required until
very recently, whereas standard chess skills HAVE been required for centuries in
order to defeat humans.

Interestingly, GMs have developed a whole set of psychological skills that ARE
required to do well against other human GMs but would NOT be required to do well
against computers.

In conclusion, there are at least 3 separate skills involved:  To score well
against humans, GMs need good chess skills AND good inter-human psychological
skills but NOT good anti-computer skills.  To score well against computers, GMs
need good chess skills AND good anti-computer skills but NOT good inter-human
psychological skills.  GMs _all_ have good chess skills and good inter-human
psychological skills.  Most GMs do NOT YET have good anti-computer skills.



>
>>
>>
>>Please choose one!



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