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Subject: Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion

Author: stuart taylor

Date: 09:26:12 04/22/02

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On April 22, 2002 at 12:12:48, Dana Turnmire wrote:

>I have a book entitled "How Computers Play Chess" by David Levy and Monty
>Newborn (1991).  In the first chapter (page 7) there is a list of grandmasters
>and programmers who predict the year a chess computer will defeat the human
>world chess champion in a match.  I don't consider the short match between
>Kasparov and the IBM super computer to be an "official" match under normal world
>championship conditions.  So as far as I am concerned the question is still
>open.
>
>Here is the list of estimates of the year in which a computer will defeat the
>world human chess champion.
>
>Year
>
>1992  Gyula Horvath; Monty Newborn.
>
>1993  John McCarthy.
>
>1994  I.M. Hans Berliner; Marty Hirsch; Feng-hsiung Hsu.
>
>1995  Murray Campbell; Larry Kaufmann; David Kittinger; I.M. Danny Kopec, Donald
>Michie; David Slate; I.M. Mike Valvo.
>
>1997  John Stanback.
>
>1998  Kevin O'Connell.
>
>1999  Ed Felton; Tom Pronk; Sidney Samole; Claude Shannon; Jos Uiterwijk.
>
>2000  Robert Hyatt; G.M. Kevin Spraggett; Victor Vikhrev; Jaap van den Herik.
>
>2001  Jurg Nievergelt; Mark Taylor.
>
>2002  I.M. Julio Kaplan.
>
>2005  Richard Lang; Pierre Nolot; Ard van Bergen.
>
>2008  Harry Nelson.
>
>2010  Don Daily; Ossi Weiner.
>
>2011  Lars Hjorth.
>
>2013  Tony Scherzer.
>
>2014  I.M. David Levy.
>
>2020  Tony Marsland.
>
>2025  Dap Hartmann.
>
>2030  Franz Morsch.
>
>2040  Jonathan Schaeffer.
>
>2050  Harm Bakker.
>
>2056  Helmut Horacek.
>
>NEVER  David Cahlander.

If I remember right, Raymond Keene said about 2010 a long time ago.
Well, when Fritz 7.0 is upgraded to Fritz 8.0 which will include much greater
speed in the software, but without compromising the knowledge, if not, there
would be even more intelligent knowledge, then I  think that might increase
Fritz by another 100 elo, oe at very least, 50.
I think that will do it more or less. OR its close computer competitors.
S.Taylor



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