Author: stuart taylor
Date: 09:26:12 04/22/02
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On April 22, 2002 at 12:12:48, Dana Turnmire wrote: >I have a book entitled "How Computers Play Chess" by David Levy and Monty >Newborn (1991). In the first chapter (page 7) there is a list of grandmasters >and programmers who predict the year a chess computer will defeat the human >world chess champion in a match. I don't consider the short match between >Kasparov and the IBM super computer to be an "official" match under normal world >championship conditions. So as far as I am concerned the question is still >open. > >Here is the list of estimates of the year in which a computer will defeat the >world human chess champion. > >Year > >1992 Gyula Horvath; Monty Newborn. > >1993 John McCarthy. > >1994 I.M. Hans Berliner; Marty Hirsch; Feng-hsiung Hsu. > >1995 Murray Campbell; Larry Kaufmann; David Kittinger; I.M. Danny Kopec, Donald >Michie; David Slate; I.M. Mike Valvo. > >1997 John Stanback. > >1998 Kevin O'Connell. > >1999 Ed Felton; Tom Pronk; Sidney Samole; Claude Shannon; Jos Uiterwijk. > >2000 Robert Hyatt; G.M. Kevin Spraggett; Victor Vikhrev; Jaap van den Herik. > >2001 Jurg Nievergelt; Mark Taylor. > >2002 I.M. Julio Kaplan. > >2005 Richard Lang; Pierre Nolot; Ard van Bergen. > >2008 Harry Nelson. > >2010 Don Daily; Ossi Weiner. > >2011 Lars Hjorth. > >2013 Tony Scherzer. > >2014 I.M. David Levy. > >2020 Tony Marsland. > >2025 Dap Hartmann. > >2030 Franz Morsch. > >2040 Jonathan Schaeffer. > >2050 Harm Bakker. > >2056 Helmut Horacek. > >NEVER David Cahlander. If I remember right, Raymond Keene said about 2010 a long time ago. Well, when Fritz 7.0 is upgraded to Fritz 8.0 which will include much greater speed in the software, but without compromising the knowledge, if not, there would be even more intelligent knowledge, then I think that might increase Fritz by another 100 elo, oe at very least, 50. I think that will do it more or less. OR its close computer competitors. S.Taylor
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