Author: Roy Eassa
Date: 10:21:25 04/22/02
Go up one level in this thread
On April 22, 2002 at 12:27:07, Chris Carson wrote: >On April 22, 2002 at 12:12:48, Dana Turnmire wrote: > >>I have a book entitled "How Computers Play Chess" by David Levy and Monty >>Newborn (1991). In the first chapter (page 7) there is a list of grandmasters >>and programmers who predict the year a chess computer will defeat the human >>world chess champion in a match. I don't consider the short match between >>Kasparov and the IBM super computer to be an "official" match under normal world >>championship conditions. So as far as I am concerned the question is still >>open. >> >>Here is the list of estimates of the year in which a computer will defeat the >>world human chess champion. > >I have this book, I still enjoy reading it from time to time. > I have it too. It's a good book, especially for when it was written. >> >>Year >> >>1992 Gyula Horvath; Monty Newborn. >> >>1993 John McCarthy. >> >>1994 I.M. Hans Berliner; Marty Hirsch; Feng-hsiung Hsu. >> >>1995 Murray Campbell; Larry Kaufmann; David Kittinger; I.M. Danny Kopec, Donald >>Michie; David Slate; I.M. Mike Valvo. >> >>1997 John Stanback. >> >>1998 Kevin O'Connell. >> >>1999 Ed Felton; Tom Pronk; Sidney Samole; Claude Shannon; Jos Uiterwijk. >> >>2000 Robert Hyatt; G.M. Kevin Spraggett; Victor Vikhrev; Jaap van den Herik. >> > >I forgot about this prediction by Dr. Hyatt. Interesting? > > >>2001 Jurg Nievergelt; Mark Taylor. >> >>2002 I.M. Julio Kaplan. >> >>2005 Richard Lang; Pierre Nolot; Ard van Bergen. >> > >Good guess by Lang, but not likely, this would have to be a DB97 type victory. > > >>2008 Harry Nelson. > >This is a good guess, only the top GM's with lots of preparation will prevail. > Chris, I guess we're really not far off. I'd guess around 2010 for the date when a desktop computer using commercial software will defeat the WC in a standard match AND at least draw a rematch. (After all, Euwe beat Alekhine in a match but was weaker by most anybody's measure and lost the rematch.) >> >>2010 Don Daily; Ossi Weiner. > >It should be all over but the crying at this time. > >> >>2011 Lars Hjorth. >> >>2013 Tony Scherzer. >> >>2014 I.M. David Levy. >> >>2020 Tony Marsland. >> >>2025 Dap Hartmann. >> >>2030 Franz Morsch. > >Amazing that Fritz has a match pending. ;) > >> >>2040 Jonathan Schaeffer. >> >>2050 Harm Bakker. >> >>2056 Helmut Horacek. >> >>NEVER David Cahlander. I am amazed that anybody would say never (or 2050+). Talk about having extreme views! I think humankind will make a strong stand at some point in the next 5-10 years, but it will be a final stand. The direction of the wind is clear -- only the velocity is in question (IMHO).
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