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Subject: Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 21:16:28 04/22/02

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On April 22, 2002 at 14:58:11, Russell Reagan wrote:

>On April 22, 2002 at 13:57:16, William H Rogers wrote:
>
>>I think that the new worlds champion will be announced just as soon as the top
>>human plays a round robin game against the top computer chess programs. I think
>>that there should be at least 4 to 6 games with each opponent. When this is
>>done, then I think people will see a computer holding the worlds championship
>>for the first time( not counting Big Blue). As to when this will happen, it is
>>up to the humans, ie. today, tommorow, or 10 years from now.
>>Bill
>
>Part of the reason humans (the _best_ humans) lose to programs is because they
>don't have experience playing against them. Computers are still very strong, and
>by no means will they ever again be "easy" wins for top players, but if GM's
>studied computer play like they would normally prepare for a match with a human,
>they would fair better. How much better is hard to say. Maybe they would win 5-3
>or 5.5-2.5 in an 8 game match. I don't think a blowout would be common, except
>perhaps in the case of Kramnik-Fritz since Kramnik will have had all the time in
>the world to prepare and test the program.
>
>And you mean Deep Blue, not Big Blue :)
>
>Russell


I have used the term "computer shock" for 20+ years.  It still fits.  Computers
are not regular tournament participants, which means that meeting one under
such conditions is a "shock".  And generally the human does far worse the
first time around than the second...

This will continue until computers are pervasive in chess.  They aren't,
yet...



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