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Subject: Re: Estimates of Year Computer Will Defeat World Human Champion

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 12:57:10 04/24/02

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On April 23, 2002 at 17:20:01, Fernando Villegas wrote:

>Well, It could be so, but I was answering a post that talked of a long match as
>they used to be. In a long match - 24 or so- I guess a GM could have more
>chances to tame a monster. BTW, I understand you are the main speakker of the
>thesis that even top program does not reach, stll, the level of stronger GM's.
>Did you change your mind?
>My best
>fernando


First, clarify what you mean by "stronger GM's"?

If you mean at 40/2hr games, then no.  Programs may be breaking into the
low GM-level now, but only barely...

If you mean game/1hr games, this is old news.

Almost 20 years ago GMs found my program impossible to beat at game/5...
(impossible in the context of a match of 4+ games, not a single game).

5 years ago it was painfully obvious that game/30 time controls were
difficult for humans to win.  We played a round-robin with 4 GMs and 4
computers at game/30, and the four computers finished in the top 4 places,
the four GM players finished in the bottom 4 places.

game/60 are also very difficult for humans.  They often build up significant
advantage at that time control, but then the last 1/3 of the game sees them
fall into all sorts of bad blunders due to lack of time.

My analysis, based on "hot hardware" might go like this:

time control           computer rating (FIDE equivalent)

game/5                 3000+
game/30                2700+
game/60                2600+
40/2hr+20/1hr          2500+

Take your pick, based on the time control you like.  I have _always_ used the
40/2hr time control myself, because from the time I started playing chess in
the 1950's, thru roughly 1990 or so, that was _the_ time control for WC matches.
That has changed.  I watched one FIDE WC event determined by a pair of blitz
games, in fact...



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