Author: maria clara benedicto
Date: 04:53:23 04/26/02
Go up one level in this thread
maybe, depends on who asking. for (love that "if and only if......" math something) people only interested in human abilities/capabilities, super duper computer no matter. for people only interested in computer chess abilities/capabilities, humans no matter. for people only interested in human vs computer, only games human vs computers important. for people interested in hardware, only super speed, giga giga giga speed athlon, bikathon cyklons matter to them. for people who no care about human vs human chess, no matter for people who no care about computer vs computer, no matter for people who no care abut human vs computer, no matter "diffrent strokes, diffrent people..." fide champion? braingames champion? has dust settled yet? just some thoughts....... maria On April 26, 2002 at 01:51:19, pavel wrote: >On April 26, 2002 at 01:39:42, Mike S. wrote: > >>On April 26, 2002 at 01:16:31, Dana Turnmire wrote: >> >>>(...) >>>I don't know what "superspeed" meant back in 1963 but it seems that in the near >>>future a simple desktop computer with a 50$ chess program will be able to take >>>on the human world champion and win. Sad to me. >> >>Although I'm probably one of the biggest admirers of computerchess, I think OTOH >>that the human World Champion will still be stronger, at least for a medium >>period of time, 10...20 years maybe. It could happen that one match is lost, but >>I think the next (re-)match could be won by the human competitor again as well. >> >>People tend to be a bit "pessimistic", because programs achieve 2700+ >>performances. But there's still a big step to do towards World Champ level, in a >>long match at long thinking time... this won't come so soon IMO. Those last >>steps are most probably much steeper than i.e. from 1900 to 2500, I assume. >> >>Another question is, if a chess computer will ever be given the chance to fight >>for the real championship in terms of the, or an, human championship (FIDE or >>not isn't so important to me). For example, there's the Kramnik-Fritz match - >>but the "real" World Championships are something else which goes parallel. >> >>Regards, >>M.Scheidl > > >I think 10-20 yrs is a long shot. >If we take Fritz for example, we see that it releases new versions every yr, >from the last version (DF) of this strong engine, Fritz7 is (arguably, but maybe >not so)50+ avg stronger, it is almost more than 80-100 elo better than Fritz6 >(arguably again). > >We can perhaps state about the current version of Fritz7 that it is almost the >same strength as lets say a human rated 2600-2650 (arguably). So with the >current trend we can assume that when Fritz11 comes out at yr 2006, it will be >(arguably) 200elo more than the current version which will be around 2800-2850 >(ahem arguably), and with much more faster processors, this could turn out to be >even stronger. > >So maybe in another 4yr we can have Kasparov-kramnik running on our handheld PC. > >not too fictional IMO ;) > >pavs
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