Author: Albert Silver
Date: 06:02:28 04/26/02
Go up one level in this thread
>I think 10-20 yrs is a long shot.
>If we take Fritz for example, we see that it releases new versions every yr,
>from the last version (DF) of this strong engine, Fritz7 is (arguably, but maybe
>not so)50+ avg stronger, it is almost more than 80-100 elo better than Fritz6
>(arguably again).
>
>We can perhaps state about the current version of Fritz7 that it is almost the
>same strength as lets say a human rated 2600-2650 (arguably). So with the
>current trend we can assume that when Fritz11 comes out at yr 2006, it will be
>(arguably) 200elo more than the current version which will be around 2800-2850
>(ahem arguably), and with much more faster processors, this could turn out to be
>even stronger.
>
>So maybe in another 4yr we can have Kasparov-kramnik running on our handheld PC.
>
>not too fictional IMO ;)
>
>pavs
I don't know that I agree with your assessment Pavel. First there is the 80-100
Elo improvement you claim for Fritz 7 over Fritz 6. This increase is that touted
by the SSDF, but as has been generally acknowledged, the results of comp-comp
games aren't the same as comp-human games. The 80-100 Elo only represents it's
ability (performance) to beat other programs on other machines, but doesn't mean
that it will improve its performance over humans by the same margin. In fact I'm
sure it doesn't.
Have you ever logged on ICC to see the games between some of the known computer
killers? One of them is rather interestingly the
recently-returned-from-retirement GM Mecking. I have had the opportunity to
observe several of his games and in particular noticed how he went about beating
them, when he did beat them. He holds his own in _blitz_ games against them mind
you, where they should theoretically be having a field day, and is undoubtedly
the key to the colossal rating he has on the server. He has also been about this
for a couple of years, and his win-loss ratio against them hasn't changed much
despite a few upgrades in software versions, and the much faster hardware. Also,
he always plays the highest rated accounts there. You should note that he is far
below 2700 FIDE and no longer at his best.
On a side note, he has been visiting Rio consistently lately in order to have
intensive chess software training with yours truly so I expect to see his form
recover somewhat if he sticks to it. I'm also teaching him how to use the mouse
with ONE hand BTW.
Albert
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