Author: Shaun Graham
Date: 05:28:08 07/26/98
Go up one level in this thread
On July 25, 1998 at 19:55:45, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On July 25, 1998 at 11:04:40, Shaun Graham wrote: > >>"At 40/2 they are not GM yet, but they are pretty close, and if the human GM >>doesn't take care, he can get rolled up pretty badly, since the computer is >>going to be quite attentive toward the least tactical mistake, where another >>human might miss it entirely. The better they (the programs) get, the harder >>it will be to attract human GM players to play them." >> >>(A quote from Robert Hyatt) >> >> He says "pretty close" now, that's not what my memory recalls him saying. > >Depends on your definition of "pretty close". I have said "FIDE 2400" for quite >a while now. Which is still a ways from the minimum 2500 needed for a GM title. " In the 2 slow games Anand didn’t show any overwhelming superiority, as he would have against a 2400 player. I have no doubt about Anand being stronger than Rebel 10, but not by 400 Elo points. During 1997 and 1998, Anand drew 48 games playing white. The lowest ranked opponent in these games was Ljubojevic with 2565. Then Piket with 2575 and Hübner with 2580. All others were rated 2630 or higher. Of course, all well known GMs. I don’t say this as proof of Rebel 10 being a GM, but overall as strong indications that its real strength is well above 2500." (Enrique Irazoqui) > > > >>Regardless of that however, what does it mean? "Pretty close" to a Shirov? >>Certainly not. "Pretty close" to a Kaidanov or Gulko? Hmm almost certainly >>not. "Pretty close" to a Kempinsky, Groszpeter, or Morovic(GMs you have >>probably never heard of)? Well the truth is that these latter GM's would have >>(probably) been toasted by Rebel 10 if they had played it 2 40/2 games. >>Regardless of what statistics say how often would you think Anand fails to beat >>2500 rated GMs? And i do mean beat them handily, not a situation where everyone >>is wondering who is winning as occurred during the Anand Rebel 40/2 games. Now >>of course the draw that Rebel got could have been luck, it could have even been >>the 1 out of however many games a "maybe weak IM"(Robert Hyatt, 1998) might have >>been statistically expected to draw in a match with a GM of Anand's caliber(more >>games are certainly needed to be definitive). Anands caliber bieng World >>Champion caliber. To illustrate what i mean by this(World Champion Caliber) i >>will quote Kasparov reffering to another GM. >> >>"I had a big discussion with my seconds over lunch about whether to play my new >>plan against Shaked. I would have preferred to see another player's face across >>the board after 13...Rd8--not necessarily Karpov, >>but ANY STRONG PLAYER. IT WAS lIKE USING AN ATOM BOMB TO SHOOT BIRDS."(Inside >>chess magazine) >> >> The so called bird, that Kasparov is reffering to is none other than the >>current WORLD junior champion GM Tal Shaked. Perhaps Kasparov is using a bit >>of bravado(??). Hmm nope Shaked stood no chance whatsoever. Yet we have just >>been witness to a match where a program (Rebel 10), first drew a game, and then >>put up an amazingly staunch resistance, so staunch in fact that Anand famous for >>his speed used as much time as his computer opponent. When we see such a >>performance against a player of "WORLD CHAMPION CALIBER" by said program we can >>definitely feel safe in positing the likelyhood that programs such as >>rebel10/Fritz5 are indeed GM strength. Especially when we can feel certain that >>if we took the weakest GM and paired him against the mighty Anand the outcome of >>the match would have indeed in all likelyhood been far far more clear. > > >You can stick with your opinion, of course. And I will stick with mine. I >simply see too many holes at present, in the micros. They have their moments, >and Rebel certainly played well. It is best not to (simply) attempt to stick with ones oppinions but rather to follow the very important concept called "the weight of the evidence". Based on two games against Anand the weight of the evidence is not overwhelmingly heavy in either direction. However, from these games one would be hard pressed to form a hypothesis that "the likelyhood is Rebel10 is not GM strength". Indeed the evidence would lend to one forming the exact opposite hypothesis. But I'd still bet on Anand, after giving him >a few games to see how it plays.... As i look in this post i see no hint or even dream of a suggestion that Anand is not clearly superior to Rebel10. In fact if it isn't as strong as a kaidanov or Gulko as mentioned previous i think Anand bieng stronger can be taken for granted. > >Unless you talk about fast games. I just did some history tests on ICC and >found that, for example, that Crafty is winning 3 of every 4 games from GM >Dlugy... that means Dlugy+200 for a rating estimate. But that is blitz. I >have similar results against Yasser, Roman, etc... I see no mention of anything other than 40/2 games in this post. Also in other post in this thread even more 40/2 game performances are attested to by other CCC members > >But 40/2 is something else... and I watched an IM (A pretty good one) rip >Rebel 9 badly in two games today. I don't know what kind of hardware, however, >as the rebel user was logged on as a guest. But this particular IM is quite >good against computers... I have been playing another IM some long games on >ICC and am breaking even pretty much, although I (Crafty) can totally shred him >at 5 3 and so forth... Why are you talking about how they are doing at faster controls there is even more evidence that they are GM's at this speed, Anand was trashed in the fast games, and the above game you mentioned by the IM in all likelyhood was but another one of these quick games. As for crafty playing an IM at long games, Crafty i'm sure is a competent opponent (the latest crafty anyway (it's stronger IMHO). I saw crafty 14.? lose a match 6 0 at 40/2 against chessmaster). However Crafty isn't in the same league as Rebel10 or Ftitz5.
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