Author: Marc Boulé
Date: 13:11:44 05/21/02
References for "D=-400*log(1/y - 1) error margins" A previous message (see below) showed such calculations but I would like to know the source of these calculations so that I can reference them correctly. For example, where does the std(y) formula and the 1.96 constant come from in what was previously stated? If anyone has documents or links showing more explanation on this, please let me know. Marc From a previous message: ----------------------- std(y) = square_root( y*(1-y)/ n ) where n is the number of games. A 95% confidence interval for y is: [ y - 1.96*std(Y) , y + 1.96*std(Y)] make h1 = y - 1.96*std(Y) this is the y lower bound make h2 = y + 1.96*std*(Y) this is the y upper bound Since x = -400*log((1-y)/y), the confidence interval for x would be: -400*log( (1-h1)/h1) ) lower bound -400*log( (1-h2)/h2) ) upper bound
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