Author: Uri Blass
Date: 02:02:43 05/26/02
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On May 26, 2002 at 02:46:42, Martin Schubert wrote: >>That means that at this time Fritz7 has the most probability to be the best. So >>it must be listed as number one. > >That's not true. There is no probability for Fritz7 being the best. You can't >calculate any probability for that because the statistical assumptions are that >the ratings are unknown but solid. We can talk about probabilities because we do not know and the question is what is our chances to be correct in guessing. Before playing games we need to have some assumptions. A possible assumption is to say that the rating are fixed but are taken from some normal distribution with known parameters. After defining the exact assumptions that we have, it is possible to calculate probabilities based on the knowledge that we have. Uri
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