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Subject: Re: Is there a limit on our ability to compute endgame tablebases?

Author: J. Wesley Cleveland

Date: 14:18:37 05/28/02

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On May 28, 2002 at 03:30:53, Russell Reagan wrote:

>Some of the 6-piece tablebases are over a gigabyte in size. Some of those files
>take over a month to generate (assuming you even have hardware capable of
>generating them in the first place), and there are still many more files to be
>generated before the 6-piece tablebases are complete.
>
>So, I'm wondering how long we (we being Bob or whoever is doing this computing),
>are going to continue generating these things. In a few years (or however long
>it takes) when the 6-piece tablebases are complete, will we start on the 7-piece
>tablebases? After those are complete many more years later, do we then start on
>the 8-piece tablebases?
>
>It seems to me that eventually, since this problem will grow exponentially, that
>it will cause a major problem somewhere down the line, because the size of hard
>disks does not seem to be growing exponentially with respect to time. Eventually
>we will get to the point where a single tablebase file will not fit onto any
>hard disk. Eventually the exponential growth of the time it takes to produce the
>files will grow beyond the computing power of the time.
>
>When that happens, will the tablebase generation continue on? Or will you look
>at the problem and think, "well it took 30 years to generate the N-piece
>tablebases, so it will take at least 10,000 years to generate the N+1-piece
>tabelbases" and decide to stop? Or will you continue on in hopes that hardware
>advances will help things move along more quickly?
>
>If you will eventually stop generation of the tablebases, when would you
>estimate that will be? Not in years time, but after which level of tablebase
>generation? After 8-piece tablebases are complete? Or 7-piece tablebases? Any
>ideas?
>
>Russell

Currently, processor speed and hard disk size are also increasing exponentially.
As long as this continues, we will be able to generate larger and larger
tablebases.



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