Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: Kasparov vs Deep Blue

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 04:52:11 06/01/02

Go up one level in this thread


On June 01, 2002 at 00:46:33, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On May 31, 2002 at 07:01:45, Chris Carson wrote:
>
>>On May 30, 2002 at 19:29:45, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>On May 30, 2002 at 19:08:49, Chris Carson wrote:
>>>
>>>>On May 30, 2002 at 17:59:35, Amir Ban wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On May 30, 2002 at 13:34:25, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On May 30, 2002 at 13:19:45, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On May 30, 2002 at 13:15:59, Jerry Jones wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Does anybody know what the highest official ELO rating according to FIDE is that
>>>>>>>>was ever attained by a human, Kasparov that is.
>>>>>>>>Is it possible that a few years ago his rating was a few points higher ?
>>>>>>>>If Kasparov had declined to play Deep Blue, would this have influenced his
>>>>>>>>rating ?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>You can add one million points to his ELO rating if you like.  Or subtract them.
>>>>>>> Just be sure to do it to everyone else and it is perfectly valid.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>ELO figures are only valuable as differences within a pool of players who have
>>>>>>>had many competitions against each other.  The absolute numbers mean absolutely
>>>>>>>nothing.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>This is a continual problem.  :)  32 degrees F means one thing.  32 degrees C
>>>>>>means another thing.  32 degrees K means another thing.  No way to compare
>>>>>>today's 2850 rating to the ratings of players 40 years ago.
>>>>>
>>>>>It is perfectly sensible to compare ratings of 40 years ago and even more to
>>>>>today's. That's because at no point in time did the pool of players change, with
>>>>>an old group completely replaced by another. The ratings are measured against
>>>>>the field, which changes continuously, and provides continuity of the ratings.
>>>>>
>>>>>So, even if Kasparov and Fischer never met (certainly Kasparov 2001 never met
>>>>>Fischer 1972), they had many common opponents, whose ratings where themselves
>>>>>determined by common opponents, etc. There's no more reason to assume that
>>>>>ratings in time are incomparable than to assume that ratings in the US and in
>>>>>Europe are incomparable, for, although most games are in one region, there are
>>>>>enough interregional games to give the ratings worldwide meaning.
>>>>>
>>>>>There are random fluctuations in the rating standard, because it's all
>>>>>statistics, but the numbers are large, and I'm not aware of anything that would
>>>>>cause ratings to systematically drift in any direction (actually this can be
>>>>>simulated effectively, by creating a random population of players and slowly
>>>>>change the pool over time and see if averages drift).
>>>>>
>>>>>Most strong players agree that the level of play is higher than 30 years ago,
>>>>>and that's a good enough reason why today top ratings are higher.
>>>>>
>>>>>Fischer, Alekhine, Capablanca are of course classics, but so are Johnnie
>>>>>Weissmuller and Jessie Owens, who would be today's also-rans. It is tempting to
>>>>>say that this is because today our clocks run slower than in their time, but
>>>>>they don't.
>>>>>
>>>>>Amir
>>>>
>>>>ELO said that ratings can be compared, one of the reasons he created this
>>>>system.  Ofcourse you are right.  However, this will continue to be a debate.
>>>>:)
>>>
>>>The argument is flawed.
>>>
>>>If players never died, were never added and never subtracted from the list then
>>>the notion would work.
>>>
>>>Illustration:
>>>
>>>Take a pool of players where one guy is GM level and you have 1000 IM's.
>>>
>>>Let the pool stabilize.  You will see the GM with 100 ELO over the IM's.
>>>
>>
>>The fly in your ointment is that the pool we are talking about is the FIDE pool
>>with plenty of GM's.  They play each other, establish a rating that changes over
>>time.  Some new players are added, some leave, but most are there for a while
>>most of the time.  There is not a disconnect in the ratings pool and there is
>>not one GM with lots of weaker players.  The ratings do provide a valid measure
>>of strength.
>>
>
>No they do _not_

Yes they do.


>
>Two ratings provide an estimate of the outcome of a game between the two
>players.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.  The absolute value of the rating is
>absolutely immaterial.  Of course, Elo pointed this out already.  But nobody
>seems to listen.
>
>
>>>Now add 10,000 patzers to the pool.
>>>
>>>Let the pool stabilize.  You will see the GM with 100 ELO over the IM's.
>>>
>>>However, both the GM and the IM's will have a big boost in their raw ELO score's
>>>numeric value.
>>>
>>>Actually, the model has a lot of problems with it.  It has enough trouble just
>>>trying to keep an accurate figure on the current crop of players.



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.