Author: Chris Carson
Date: 09:11:48 06/01/02
Go up one level in this thread
On June 01, 2002 at 11:19:26, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On June 01, 2002 at 07:57:45, Chris Carson wrote: > >>On June 01, 2002 at 00:50:25, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On May 31, 2002 at 07:16:45, Chris Carson wrote: >>> >>>>Dann, >>>> >>>>If you believe that ratings inflation exists, then do the stats/research and >>>>present a proof. It may exist and there is plenty of data to look at. If you >>>>can show this, it would prove your point. You should be able to establish >>>>averages for today, 5 years back, 10 years back, 20 years back. Show N >>>>population, break out #GM's, #IM's, ... Show the std deviation. If there is >>>>inflation, you can show it to be significant and establish a 95% confidence >>>>level. You can show the rate of inflaciton over time, factors that influence >>>>the inflation (based on data not opinion) and make recommendations for >>>>correcting this. It would be impressive. The records are there, you may have >>>>to dig them out, but I "know" the data is there. Spend some time, and then >>>>please present your findings, I would really like to see what you find and what >>>>you have to say after you discover it. >>> >>> >>>There is _no_ way to prove it. Because the "old pool" is gone and can't be >>>compared to the "new pool" to see if players from the "old pool" get a higher >>>or lower rating when they jump into the "new pool". >> >>This is hogwash, there is no problem comparing these, just saying different >>"pools" over and over does not change it. The ratings were never disconnected >>or derived from different "pools". some people left and some new ones added, but >>there was mostly overlap for most of the time, not different. > > >I gave a direct reference to Elo's book which is derived from sampling >theory. > >Can you give a reference to say "this is hogwash"?? > >I didn't think so... You maybe quoting from Elo book, but you have not given the citation. Please provide so everyone can go get the same book you are quoting from. Just saying Elo book is not a citation, if you do not know how to provide a citation, I will do it for you.
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