Author: Uri Blass
Date: 22:42:07 06/02/02
Go up one level in this thread
On June 02, 2002 at 22:06:58, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: >On June 01, 2002 at 13:14:58, Andrew Dados wrote: > >Hello, > >of course there are problems with the rating truths. > >For example here it says someone 1000 points lower >rated has 0.003 chance against me. > >Or 3 out of 1000 games. > >However OTB, it is not 3 out of 1000 games. Not even 1 out of 1000. >It is 0 out of 1000 and nothing else. I do not know about a lot of cases when the difference was 1000 points so I doubt if we have enough statistic but I agree that the expected result is probably less than 1 out of 1000. > >Idem for up to 600 points. I know about at least one case when 1900 boy won a game against 2500 GM. I believe that the expected result is less than 3% but I have no statistic about games when the difference is more than 600 elo. Note that the real difference in that games is usually smaller because strong 1900 players get more often the opportunity to play against GM's when the swiss system is used. > >The rating idea doesn't work when a player who is titled >plays a < 1700 player simply. Another point is that statistic here may be misleading because the <1700 player who wins or draws against a master may be really 2000 player who trained against computers and not <1700 player. Uri
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