Author: Sune Fischer
Date: 10:21:56 06/03/02
Go up one level in this thread
On June 03, 2002 at 13:12:48, Dann Corbit wrote: >On June 02, 2002 at 22:06:58, Vincent Diepeveen wrote: > >>On June 01, 2002 at 13:14:58, Andrew Dados wrote: >> >>Hello, >> >>of course there are problems with the rating truths. >> >>For example here it says someone 1000 points lower >>rated has 0.003 chance against me. >> >>Or 3 out of 1000 games. >> >>However OTB, it is not 3 out of 1000 games. Not even 1 out of 1000. >>It is 0 out of 1000 and nothing else. >> >>Idem for up to 600 points. >> >>The rating idea doesn't work when a player who is titled >>plays a < 1700 player simply. > >At some point Fischer, Kasparov, and Anand were all rated 1000 points lower than >someone nowhere near to their ability. I suspect that most points gathered by >these far lower players are rising stars on their way up. > >And it is possible once in a blue moon to stumble onto a repeated check or a >surprise mate for someone of far lesser ability. I think it is possible for a weak player to make the right moves in very complicated positions, could be for the wrong reasons (pure luck), but it will happen from time to time. This is just like a program searching 8 plies will sometimes beat a version of itself that searches 10 plies. I doubt the probability ever becomes 0, mistakes will happen on either side, so eventually he wins the lottery. -S.
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