Author: Chris Carson
Date: 10:22:09 06/03/02
Go up one level in this thread
On June 03, 2002 at 12:30:53, Sune Fischer wrote: > >yes, if you could do a hypothesis testing, of course, but how do you do that? >I hypothesise there has been a slight inflation in rating, but also a slight >increase in average strength of top playes. This means we should subtract a bit >from the current ratings of players, but their mean should still be higher. >How do you design a test to confirm this hypothesis? compare means between 1972 GM ratings and 2002 GM ratings. Since you use slight, I will assume you do not care about significance, although you can determine this with a t-test. The t-test is one stat test to help confirm your hypothesis (there are others you would actuall do for a more detailed analysis). If you think there has been ratings inflation, then by definition you are comparing the ratings of 2002 with 1972 (or whatever date you choose). Small changes up or down over time may not be significant. > >You can't very well ask the players from the past to solve a given testset of >positions... >You need some *fixpoint*, some universial scale to match up against, so far we >have been unable to design such an scale. Here is where we disagree, the FIDE ELO scale can be used. Yes the membership will change, but the rate of change is slow and provides a good measure. My guess is you disagree. Again let me encourage you to go learn how to study humans over time (longitudinal studies). There are other subjective ways to measure strength. I like the more objective ELO comparison, if you do not, then don't use it. > >>> >>>I think objectively it is "easier" today to reach the level of a 1970's GM, >>>because of all the aids available to the player. This doesn't "prove" or >>>disprove inflation of rating, we just cannot compare strength across the time >>>barrier. >>> >>>-S. >> >>We can compare strength across time and we can do studies to determine the >>effects of factors you listed above (they may have no effect or they may have a >>significant effect). We could also set up a study to determine if it is >>"easier" today. It may be, but I would need to see research on that before I >>would make that claim. Same for ratings inflation. > >Please tell me how to compare strengths when the elo scale is useless? I disagree that it is useless. Why would you want to throw it out? >Why don't we switch to that method and throw out the elo system then? > >-S.
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