Author: Albert Silver
Date: 11:11:05 06/03/02
Go up one level in this thread
>We can compare strength across time and we can do studies to determine the
>effects of factors you listed above (they may have no effect or they may have a
>significant effect). We could also set up a study to determine if it is
>"easier" today. It may be, but I would need to see research on that before I
>would make that claim. Same for ratings inflation.
It is fairly obvious there is rating inflation, and one need only look at the
system in place. Mind you, there has ALWAYS been rating inflation, but this has
worsened considerably since the FIDE rating limit was dropped to 2000.
First, consider the old rule that existed until 10-12 years ago or so. This
wasn't the worst one, but it shows it clearly: a player who wins a tournament
cannot lose rating points, no matter the TPR. That was a rule. Inflation was the
result.
The biggest one though is simply how one gets a FIDE rating. One needs to get it
in 4 game blocks. Games played against other non-FIDE rated players are not
considered. This means I can play an event with 9 rounds, score 2/9 with a TPR
of 1750 and yet get a FIDE block worth 2200. Why? because the 2 points were
against the FIDE rated players. Get another block or two (in case I can't get a
5-game block to complete the 9 games required) and presto! I'm 2200 FIDE with a
national rating of 1900. So the rating is based on measly 4-game TPRs, and note
just how big an error margin there is, notwithstanding the fact that these are
practically hand-selected games from a longer event.
The first ratings are very often off by a margin, and almost always are off in
excess. I have personally seen many players who got initial FIDE ratings of 2300
and then ended up giving away a good 100 points or so which ended up just
getting added to the pool. Mind you, the players who gave the ratings for those
initial 4-game blocks NEVER lose a point. So the ratings go only one way here. I
could lose 30 consecutive games against 1500-rated players and not have my FIDE
rating move an inch. I could play 5 games and give one of those 1500 rated
players a 2400 FIDE block and not lose a point. You see the issue. I see this
ALL the time. I played in a friendly match against another club in which their
top player was rated 2080 FIDE. At first that was all I knew, but when I heard
who it was, I laughed quite a bit. You see, the guy in question is rated about
1800-1850 on the national rating list, and has been so for the last 20 years at
least. He is passionate about the game, loves it, but isn't very strong and
there is _no_way_in_hell_ he is now playing 2080. I'd played him before and knew
what his game is like. It's simple: a genuine 2080 player plays and fights with
different weapons and the guy in question doesn't. Our latest game was no
exception. I have no doubt there will be a free-for-all with those rating points
of his if he decides to risk them in a full-fledged event, and I know of others
like him as well.
The new ratings aren't always off by so much, but there is invariably a
difference, and that is added to every new rating included. When the lower
barrier was 2200, this effect was far slower, but by lowering it to 2000 it was
accelerated considerably.
It never occured to me there was any doubt about inflation in ratings.
Albert
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