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Subject: Re: computer calculations of number of ways to play first 10-ply

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 17:35:31 07/30/98

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On July 29, 1998 at 23:45:09, Ernst A. Heinz wrote:

>On July 29, 1998 at 18:54:35, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On July 29, 1998 at 13:21:05, Danniel Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>On July 29, 1998 at 10:48:44, Tom Kerrigan wrote:
>>>
>>>>On July 29, 1998 at 10:06:43, Danniel Corbit wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>Let's say, for the sake of jihad, that we define sensible moves in the following
>>>>>manner:
>>>>>From a given FEN position, look at what every GM who has ever visited that
>>>>>position has done.
>>>>>From the same FEN position, let every top commercial and amateur program examine
>>>>>that position for 24 hours.
>>>>>At this point, we would have, I suspect, a small list of possible very good
>>>>>moves, a mid sized list of so-so moves, and a large list of bad moves.
>>>>
>>>>Perhaps.
>>>>I don't know what this would accomplish, and it seems like similar things have
>>>>been done by people who do opening book stuff.
>>>>Basically, what you're writing isn't really related to the topic at hand.
>>>I disagree.  It is related, because I believe that an exhaustive search has very
>>>little value, and a careful analysis of the "ahem" good moves has a very high
>>>value.
>>>
>>>Here is an experiment that will demonstrate my point [I think].  Run any chess
>>>engine you like against a set of 100 arbitrarily chosen FEN positions achieved
>>>by at least 3 different GM's at least 6 moves into the game.  Analyze the
>>>position for 7 plys, exhaustive.  Analyze the position for 8 ply's exhaustive.
>>>See how often a move that was not considered one of the top three from previous
>>>exhaustive searches gets introduced as the new choice.  I suspect it will be
>>>less than one in a thousand.
>>>
>>>If that is the case, then exhaustive searching has very, very little value.
>>>
>>>We will certainly not be able to search 12 plys exhaustive for a long time,
>>>anyway.  Exhaustive search will therefore never be competitive with Alpha-Beta
>>>or any other real searching technique.  So what is it's value?  Only to find the
>>>rare gem that conventional searching techniques might miss.  99.99999% of the
>>>bogus games generated by the exhaustive search will be utter crap that even a 9
>>>year old novice would not play.
>>
>>
>>Here I have some data.  In the "Crafty goes Deep" experiment last year, we ran
>>such a test with Crafty, searching 347 different positions to depth=15.  We
>>were interested in how often does one more ply produce a different move.  The
>>result?  Somewhere in the 20% range which was surprising.  In fact, within close
>>limits, adding one ply changed the PV about 20% of the time no matter whether it
>>was going from ply 6 to ply 7, or ply 14 to 15.  The JICCA has the exact
>>results, while the raw search output is on my ftp machine...
>>
>>Bob
>
>Bob,
>
>Your paper only mentions searches to fixed depths of 14 plies.
>
>=Ernst=



actually wasn't my paper.  :)  Monty wrote the thing... I simply put the
data together for him...

However, looking at the raw data, almost all positions were searched to
depth=15, but a couple were so complicated that after 24 hours they stopped
at 14.  That might be why the tables didn't go any further.  I do remember
that Monty told me via phone that Ken Thompson was most surprised that
it was still changing its mind, from 13-14, about as often as it changed
its mind from 10-11 or whatever...

Which is one reason I will *always* take another ply when given the chance,
right?  :)

Of course, some say "nps doesn't matter" but I notice that *nobody* ever
plays an important game without trying to obtain the fastest machine that
is available.  :)



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