Author: Uri Blass
Date: 05:03:59 06/13/02
Go up one level in this thread
On June 12, 2002 at 18:16:58, Peter McKenzie wrote:
>On June 12, 2002 at 12:36:09, Dieter Buerssner wrote:
>
>>On June 11, 2002 at 07:37:52, Peter McKenzie wrote:
>>
>>>Ask yourself this question:
>>>
>>>"If I ran this very same match 100 times, but with Crafty 18.15 vs Crafty 18.15,
>>>then how many times would I see this score (22.5 - 13.5)?"
>>>
>>>What answer do you come up with?
>>
>>I am not Jorge, but I got an answer:
>>
>>E:\dcrand>cmatch 36 35 25 40 1000000
>>Result of chess matches between equal opponents
>>White wins 35.0%, black 25.0% and 40.0% draws
>>A match of 36 games was simulated by 1000000 Monte Carlo tries
>>
>> result probability <= this > this
>> 18.0 - 18.0 ( 50.0%): 8.582% 8.582% 91.418%
>> 18.5 - 17.5 ( 51.4%): 16.799% 25.381% 74.619%
>> 19.0 - 17.0 ( 52.8%): 15.748% 41.129% 58.871%
>> 19.5 - 16.5 ( 54.2%): 14.058% 55.187% 44.813%
>> 20.0 - 16.0 ( 55.6%): 11.950% 67.136% 32.864%
>> 20.5 - 15.5 ( 56.9%): 9.670% 76.807% 23.193%
>> 21.0 - 15.0 ( 58.3%): 7.436% 84.243% 15.757%
>> 21.5 - 14.5 ( 59.7%): 5.508% 89.751% 10.249%
>> 22.0 - 14.0 ( 61.1%): 3.878% 93.629% 6.371%
>> 22.5 - 13.5 ( 62.5%): 2.555% 96.184% 3.816%
>> 23.0 - 13.0 ( 63.9%): 1.646% 97.830% 2.170%
>> 23.5 - 12.5 ( 65.3%): 0.992% 98.822% 1.178%
>> 24.0 - 12.0 ( 66.7%): 0.557% 99.379% 0.621%
>> 24.5 - 11.5 ( 68.1%): 0.309% 99.688% 0.312%
>> 25.0 - 11.0 ( 69.4%): 0.164% 99.852% 0.148%
>> 25.5 - 10.5 ( 70.8%): 0.084% 99.936% 0.064%
>> 26.0 - 10.0 ( 72.2%): 0.036% 99.972% 0.029%
>> 26.5 - 9.5 ( 73.6%): 0.018% 99.990% 0.010%
>> 27.0 - 9.0 ( 75.0%): 0.007% 99.997% 0.003%
>> 27.5 - 8.5 ( 76.4%): 0.002% 99.999% 0.001%
>> 28.0 - 8.0 ( 77.8%): 0.001% 100.000% 0.000%
>> 28.5 - 7.5 ( 79.2%): 0.000% 100.000% 0.000%
>>
>>So, assuming that on average white will win 35% of the games, black will win 25%
>>of the games, and 40% of the games are draw, one can expect in 6.4% of such 36
>>game matches a result of 22.5 - 13.5 and more extreme.
>
>Very nice Dieter.
>I think Jorge thought such a result was impossible with equal opponents :-)
My result at 20 minutes per game
Movei00_71b-movei00_7a 25.5-14.5(+20,=11,-9)
I think that the significance of this result is close to the significance of
23-13.
I believe that it is less significant than 23.5-12.5 and more significant than
22.5-13.5
The reason is simple:
1)If there is more games and you do not increase the difference in the results
then the result is less significant
2)If there are more games and you increase the % of the winner the result is
more significant.
I did not try to prove that these claims are always correct but my intuition
tells me that the claims are correct.
Note that I consider the result as more significant because the latest movei had
to play with inferior opening book.
00_7a always changed it's choice with white between 1.e4 and 1.d4 and did
something similiar with black when 00_71b tried every thing that is possible in
the first move:
Here are 2 of the games:
[Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "URI-PC"]
[Date "2002.06.13"]
[Round "20"]
[White "movei00_7a"]
[Black "movei00_71b"]
[Result "0-1"]
[TimeControl "1200"]
1. d4 f6 2. e4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. Bd2 Nc6 5. d5 exd5 6. exd5 Qe7+ 7. Be2 Ne5
8. Nb5 Kd8 9. f4 Nc4 10. c3 Bc5 11. b4 Bb6 12. Nf3 Ne3 13. Bxe3 Qxe3 14.
Qd3 Qf2+ 15. Kd2 Qxg2 16. Nbd4 Qh3 17. Rag1 d6 18. Qe4 f5 19. Qc2 Bxd4 20.
cxd4 Qh6 21. Rc1 Qxf4+ 22. Kd1 Ke8 23. Qxc7 Ne7 24. Bb5+ Kf7 25. Re1 Qxf3+
26. Re2 Rf8 27. Qxe7+ Kg8 28. Qxd6 a6 29. Ba4 f4 30. Rc7 Bg4 31. Qe7 Qxe2+
32. Qxe2 Bxe2+ 33. Kxe2 b5 34. Bb3 f3+ 35. Kf2 Rf4 36. d6+ Kf8 37. Be6 Rd8
38. d5 Rxd6 39. Rc6 Ke7 40. Rc7+ Kf6 41. Rf7+ Ke5 42. Rxg7 Rxb4 43. Kxf3 h6
44. Rf7 Rd8 45. Rf5+ Kd4 46. Kg3 Rb2 47. a4 Rb3+ 48. Kg4 b4 49. Rh5 Ra3 50.
Rxh6 b3 51. Bf5 Rxa4 52. Kg5 Ra1 53. Rb6 Rg1+ 54. Kh6 Rg2 55. h4 b2 56. Bh7
Kc5 57. Rc6+ Kxd5 58. Rc3 Rg4 59. Rd3+ Rd4 60. Rxd4+ Kxd4 61. Kg5 Rg8+ 62.
Kf6 Rg4 63. Bb1 Rxh4 64. Kf7 Rh1 65. Bc2 a5 66. Bf5 Rf1 67. Ke6 Rxf5 68.
Kxf5 b1=Q+ 69. Kf6 a4 70. Kf7 a3 71. Ke6 a2 72. Kf6 a1=Q 73. Kg5 Ke3 74.
Kg4 Qg7+ 75. Kh4 Qbh7#
{Black mates} 0-1
[Event "Computer chess game"]
[Site "URI-PC"]
[Date "2002.06.13"]
[Round "22"]
[White "movei00_7a"]
[Black "movei00_71b"]
[Result "0-1"]
[TimeControl "1200"]
1. e4 f5 2. exf5 Nf6 3. g4 h6 4. d4 e6 5. fxe6 dxe6 6. Bg2 c5 7. Be3 Qb6 8.
dxc5 Bxc5 9. Bxc5 Qxc5 10. c3 O-O 11. Nd2 Qe5+ 12. Qe2 Qxe2+ 13. Nxe2 Nxg4
14. O-O Nc6 15. b4 Rb8 16. Rae1 Ne7 17. b5 Ne5 18. Be4 Nf7 19. f4 Nd6 20.
Bd3 Nef5 21. Nb3 Ne3 22. Rf3 Nd5 23. c4 Nb4 24. Nd2 e5 25. fxe5 Rxf3 26.
Nxf3 Nxd3 27. Rd1 Nxc4 28. Rxd3 Bg4 29. Ned4 Rd8 30. Rc3 Nxe5 31. Nxe5 Rxd4
32. Rc7 Bh3 33. Nf3 Ra4 34. Rxb7 Rxa2 35. Rb8+ Kf7 36. Ne5+ Kf6 37. Nd3
Rg2+ 38. Kh1 Kg5 39. Rg8 Rd2 40. Ne1 Kg6 41. Kg1 Re2 42. Nf3 Rg2+ 43. Kf1
Rxh2+ 44. Ke1 Ra2 45. Rd8 Kf5 46. Nd4+ Kf4 47. Nc6 Be6 48. Ra8 Rb2 49. Rxa7
g5 50. Ra4+ Ke3 51. Ra3+ Bb3 52. Kf1 Kf4 53. Kg1 Rb1+ 54. Kf2 g4 55. Ne7
g3+ 56. Kg2 Rb2+ 57. Kg1 Kf3 58. Ra1 Rg2+ 59. Kf1 Bc4+ 60. Ke1 Re2+ 61. Kf1
Rb2+ 62. Ke1 g2 63. Ra3+ Kg4 64. Rg3+ Kxg3 65. Nf5+ Kh3 66. Ne3 g1=Q+ 67.
Nf1 Qxf1#
{Black mates} 0-1
Uri
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