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Subject: Re: Unbetten RebelXp beated 5 times fritz 7007 in row

Author: Daniel Clausen

Date: 07:48:28 06/14/02

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On June 14, 2002 at 10:28:24, stuart taylor wrote:

>On June 14, 2002 at 07:42:21, Kurt Utzinger wrote:
>
>>I can only say once again that I have seen match results of 9-1 followed by 1-9
>>and that for this reason quite a large number of games are needed to say for
>>sure that program A is stronger than program B.
>>Kurt
>
>It is a bit interesting why it goes in blocks.
>Maybe when Fisher beat Larsen and Taimanov 6-0 each, maybe Larsen too, that
>didn't mean ANYTHING in the world either?
>S.Taylor

Ah the classic fault.

Looking at a series of results and look for patterns is the wrong way to 'prove'
something. Afterall there has to be _some_ pattern. :)

Little example, which is a bit extreme but shows the point:

A: throws a die 10 times and gets 1, 3, 6, 3, 5, 3, 1, 5, 2, 2
B: "Oh! It seems that when throwing a die 10 times, we end up with this
pattern!"
A: "Not necessarily"
B: "Yes! Yup yup!"
A: Prove it!
B: "Look at your example! Ha! I won! :)"


Morale of the story:
-it's ok to take an example and speculate
-you have to repeat the example (usually several times) and see whether your
claim still holds. A mathematician could even tell you how many times you have
to repeat it in order to be sure to 95% (or any other number you choose)

HTH :)

Sargon



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