Author: Terry Ripple
Date: 09:11:19 06/14/02
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On June 14, 2002 at 11:01:08, Kurt Utzinger wrote: >On June 14, 2002 at 10:28:24, stuart taylor wrote: > >>On June 14, 2002 at 07:42:21, Kurt Utzinger wrote: >> >>>I can only say once again that I have seen match results of 9-1 followed by 1-9 >>>and that for this reason quite a large number of games are needed to say for >>>sure that program A is stronger than program B. >>>Kurt >> >>It is a bit interesting why it goes in blocks. >>Maybe when Fisher beat Larsen and Taimanov 6-0 each, maybe Larsen too, that >>didn't mean ANYTHING in the world either? >>S.Taylor > >There is perhaps a big difference between human vs human and computer vs >computer matches. A player of high top level will hardly ever lose 3 or 4 games >over a match of 20 games against a player having 200-300 ELO less. Such things >however often happen in computer matches. >Kurt --------------- I disagree! A lower rated player who is 200 ELO points lower than his opponent still has a win expectancy of aproximately 24% according to the United States Chess Federation's win expectancies analysis! My friend who has a rating of 2345 ELO and has won three Pennsylvania State Championships three years in a row against stiff competition has agreed to these figures as he has lost games in many tournaments to players rated 200 points lower than him and comes near to these figures of 24% loses over hundreds of games! You can't always expect this 24% figure from a small pool of games such as the 20 games mentioned but from a pool of perhaps hundreds or possibly it could take thousands of games to show aproximately this 24% win expectancy from a player rated 200 points less than his opponent. Best regards, Terry
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