Author: Oliver Roese
Date: 12:47:55 07/01/02
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On June 30, 2002 at 12:51:20, Uri Blass wrote: >I believe that a good program for this task can help me to improve my >chess program. > >Note that the formula does not have to be linear. > >The test for the quality of the prediction is E((y-y')^2) when y' is the >prediction for y based on the varaibles x1,x2,x3,x4,x5 > >A good program for this task may get a file of integers and give me an estimate >for the 6n's integer in the file based on the previous 5 integers. > >It is better if the program gives me not only the prediction but also an >estimate for the distribution of the error. > I suggest to first try Excel, if you can have your hands on it. Put in your data, add a diagram and then add a trendline. More statistcal functions are available, check the help for that. Unfortunately it doesn't explain what it does, use an introductory textbook about inductive statistics for that. Digging deeper isn't that difficult, you can try to checkout software for that, e.g: http://directory.google.com/Top/Business/Management/Strategy_and_Forecasting/Software/?tc=1 You can search at amazon.com for literature, you may start here: http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0792379306/qid=1025552545/sr=8-3/ref=sr_8_3/104-2797981-9609551 The keyword was "forecasting". Oliver
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