Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 20:43:54 07/01/02
Go up one level in this thread
On July 01, 2002 at 23:37:21, Robin Smith wrote: >On July 01, 2002 at 15:21:09, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On July 01, 2002 at 14:55:41, Albert Silver wrote: >> >>>On July 01, 2002 at 14:49:47, pavel wrote: >>> >>>>On July 01, 2002 at 14:47:40, ERIQ wrote: >>>> >>>>>I'm not sure about you guys but I'm in shock !! >>>> >>>>Because how the PGN output looks? >>>> >>>>;) >>>>cheers, >>>>pavs >>> >>>Either that or because Hiarcs 8 on an Athlon 1200 lost to Junior 7 on a K6/450 >>>in a previous SSDF match. >> >>In a span of 4 games, we can expect anything to happen. In the Ridderkerk >>tournament, Quark 1.76 blasted Crafty 18.15 4-0. I ran the same programs over >>the weekend at G/90 and got: >> >> Program Elo + - Games Score Av.Op. Draws >>1 Crafty-18.15 : 2522 143 105 24 56.2 % 2478 37.5 % >>2 Quark v1.76beta : 2478 105 143 24 43.8 % 2522 37.5 % >> >>I don't know why anyone would be in shock about any 4-0 result unless there were >>at least a 500 ELO difference. > >Even for a 500 rating point difference, the weaker side should get 24% of the >points. If we simplify the math by ignoring draws, four games in a row would be >.24^4=.0033 (or .33% or 3.3 times out of 1000 four game matches). So I am >still not sure 4 wins in a row for a 500 rating point difference should cause >shock. I think it is 5% for 500 points. 24% is about 200 points difference. So that would give 0.0532402^4 = 0.0000080344973720078203276816 Which is about 1 in 124463 trials. It could happen, but rather shocking, I think. At least surprising.
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