Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 16:10:57 07/05/02
Go up one level in this thread
On July 05, 2002 at 19:08:30, Dann Corbit wrote:
>On July 05, 2002 at 17:36:11, Omid David wrote:
>[snip]
>>If as you pointed out the programs reach the depth of 50 plies, I believe most
>>of the games will end in a draw.
>
>Sounds like a hunch to me. I wonder if any experiments have been run to see if
>we get the same drop off in computers that we do in GM's. I suspect that with
>the GM's they are deliberately drawing once they get some small advantage.
>
>>But I don't see alpha-beta based programs reach even the depth of 20 plies in
>>next 50 years!!! No matter how fast the hardware will be, it won't match the
>>exponential explosion of alpha-beta trees.
>
>Most modern programs get anywhere from 10 to 15 plies on a reasonable search
>(say G/90 on fast hardware). Let's take the pessimistic estimate of 10 plies.
>That means we need ten more plies.
>
>CPU speed doubles every 12 months (used to be once every 18 months so it is
>accelerating). But we will use the pessimistic figure of 18 months.
{oops, I used 12 months -- but it won't change things much}
20 * 1.5 years would be 30 years. But there are also some chess programs with
branching factors smaller than 4. Anyway, you get the picture, I am sure.
>Suppose a branch factor of 4 (many computer programs do better than that).
>
>Two doublings buys us a ply.
>
>We need 20 doublings to get ten more plies.
>
>So in 20 years, the average computer program will search 20 plies (even from the
>most difficult positions).
>
>I suspect it will be a lot sooner.
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