Author: Fernando Villegas
Date: 14:03:46 08/05/98
Hi Ed: No, you are mistaken. You have no reasons to be afraid of your craft. What is happening these days is not the end of the chess industry and the threat for the jobs of chess programmers, as you putted in a post with a smile, but a somewhat sad one. Remember Churchill: This is not the end; not even is the beginning of the end, but is the end of the beginning. Let me summarize the stages this industry has lived and what we can expect in the near future. a) The heroic times where computer player between 1200 and 1400 elo and the kick for programmers and customer was to produce and to purchase, each year, a more decent program capable of beating C players. These were the times of Chess Challenger 8, Sargon II , etc. Probably dates should be between 1977 and 1980 b) the times where the challenge was to produce and to purchase a program capable of expert level performance. This happened between 1981 and 1988, more or less. We, customers, were very ansious to know about each new computer, the times when we knew almost nothing of this stuff an any new magazine could do well just explaining what a heck was pruning or tactical extensions. c) from 1988 to around 1995 or 96 we saw the delivery of master level programs capable of beating most of us 75% of the time. Nevertheless, even then we were interested in more and more strength, but this time focused less in our playing than that of masters. What customer wanted to see was a program capable of beating the bastards that beaten us in the club and that we got it at the end of the period. d) And now, the current period, where the last human trench is represented by GM players and almost all of us are regularly cut in pieces 90% of the time or more and so the strength affair has diluted and is, in the souls of most customers, in the very fringe of doom. But all that is not the end. Is the end of this long period, yes. Is the end of the strength-focused development of programs. Is the end of the race to beat IM and, next, GM. Is the end of the excitement to get a new program capable of twisting our arms. But then a new period is beginning and it will be full of opportunities, as the previous was. Probably will be the period where the development of features, coaching functions, pretty GUI, etc will go to full fruition. The road has been showed by Fritz and surely there is a lot of room to do a lot more beyond. Just think in what is lacking in GUI features, just to mention one thing. Imagine all that can be done in the area of voice, presentation, database, training. I imagine chess programs so full of features than even they will give the owner extra things like PIM, word processors, etc, all with the graphics and style of chess, all that fashioned to please chess fans. I would like to be capable or written a letter with pretty chess figurines in the margin as Rebel XX cut me in pieces. Remember first word processors? They were -like WordStar and WordPerfect- just that. They became perfect for his task and nevertheless we still purchase word processor as much they are not anymore word processor, but complete suites with database, PIM, dictionaries, graphic design, etc. We just don’t expect only to write, but besides to be helped with our grammar, orthography, lexicon, etc. So will happen with chess programs. The idea of “professional” software purely dedicated to strength and to please GM is doomed. People from now on will ask the same strength of that pro program, but with absolutely all the rest and that “rest” is a very wide area where imaginative people and programmers will find many opportunities. What will happen with the producers? Well, maybe that increase of features will hurt people that works part-time in this business. Or that lacks adequate distributions canals, But that is not your case, Ed, as much you are one of the few -or maybe the only one- that has made of this entirely your profession. You have a real company and so you have what is needed to go further. And you will. You will...if you catch the wave and next time, around rebel 11 or 12 at most, we can see more than a chess program, but a friend, a kind of alter ego, a master with human voice and appearance and even remembering for us our appointments. Why not? Just open your imagination. Fernando
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