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Subject: Re: The law of diminishing returns

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 12:40:07 07/12/02

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On July 12, 2002 at 15:34:33, Sean Mintz wrote:

>I'd be interested to see how long that would take :)

Assumptions:
1.  The chess engines do not improve branching factor at all, ever
2.  A good chess engine can reach 15 plies (average) at 40/2 time control (the
only one that matters)
3.  Every 2 years we get another ply.  (pessimistic branching factor of 4)

We are needing 45 plies to hit 60.

In 90 years, chess engines will search 60 plies from a crowded board position,
even if they do not improve in the slightest.

I suspect humans will have some trouble winning by then.  Even Eduard. ;-)

• Re: The law of diminishing returns Rolf Tueschen 12:44:04 07/12/02
  • Re: The law of diminishing returns Dann Corbit 13:01:18 07/12/02
    • Re: The law of diminishing returns Rolf Tueschen 13:06:19 07/12/02
      • Re: The law of diminishing returns Dann Corbit 13:11:00 07/12/02
        • Re: The law of diminishing returns Dan Andersson 13:20:58 07/12/02

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