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Subject: Re: The law of diminishing returns

Author: Rolf Tueschen

Date: 12:44:04 07/12/02

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On July 12, 2002 at 15:40:07, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On July 12, 2002 at 15:34:33, Sean Mintz wrote:
>
>>I'd be interested to see how long that would take :)
>
>Assumptions:
>1.  The chess engines do not improve branching factor at all, ever
>2.  A good chess engine can reach 15 plies (average) at 40/2 time control (the
>only one that matters)
>3.  Every 2 years we get another ply.  (pessimistic branching factor of 4)
>
>We are needing 45 plies to hit 60.
>
>In 90 years, chess engines will search 60 plies from a crowded board position,
>even if they do not improve in the slightest.
>
>I suspect humans will have some trouble winning by then.  Even Eduard. ;-)

But then, in 90 years, they're gonna thaw me out of the ice and I will take over
from Eduard...

Seriously!

Rolf Tueschen



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