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Subject: Re: The law of diminishing returns

Author: Dann Corbit

Date: 13:01:18 07/12/02

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On July 12, 2002 at 15:44:04, Rolf Tueschen wrote:

>On July 12, 2002 at 15:40:07, Dann Corbit wrote:
>
>>On July 12, 2002 at 15:34:33, Sean Mintz wrote:
>>
>>>I'd be interested to see how long that would take :)
>>
>>Assumptions:
>>1.  The chess engines do not improve branching factor at all, ever
>>2.  A good chess engine can reach 15 plies (average) at 40/2 time control (the
>>only one that matters)
>>3.  Every 2 years we get another ply.  (pessimistic branching factor of 4)
>>
>>We are needing 45 plies to hit 60.
>>
>>In 90 years, chess engines will search 60 plies from a crowded board position,
>>even if they do not improve in the slightest.
>>
>>I suspect humans will have some trouble winning by then.  Even Eduard. ;-)
>
>But then, in 90 years, they're gonna thaw me out of the ice and I will take over
>from Eduard...
>
>Seriously!

Everyone will be playing GO then and cringing in fear of the computers.



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