Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: The law of diminishing returns

Author: Rolf Tueschen

Date: 13:06:19 07/12/02

Go up one level in this thread


On July 12, 2002 at 16:01:18, Dann Corbit wrote:

>On July 12, 2002 at 15:44:04, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>
>>On July 12, 2002 at 15:40:07, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>
>>>On July 12, 2002 at 15:34:33, Sean Mintz wrote:
>>>
>>>>I'd be interested to see how long that would take :)
>>>
>>>Assumptions:
>>>1.  The chess engines do not improve branching factor at all, ever
>>>2.  A good chess engine can reach 15 plies (average) at 40/2 time control (the
>>>only one that matters)
>>>3.  Every 2 years we get another ply.  (pessimistic branching factor of 4)
>>>
>>>We are needing 45 plies to hit 60.
>>>
>>>In 90 years, chess engines will search 60 plies from a crowded board position,
>>>even if they do not improve in the slightest.
>>>
>>>I suspect humans will have some trouble winning by then.  Even Eduard. ;-)
>>
>>But then, in 90 years, they're gonna thaw me out of the ice and I will take over
>>from Eduard...
>>
>>Seriously!
>
>Everyone will be playing GO then and cringing in fear of the computers.

Then I'll wait another century or two.

Chess will never die. May the popular modes change...

BTW, could another race in space play a more difficult game than GO? Just some
ideas. How it would look like?

Rolf Tueschen



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.