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Subject: Re: The law of diminishing returns

Author: José Carlos

Date: 16:39:22 07/14/02

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On July 14, 2002 at 19:25:34, Rolf Tueschen wrote:

>On July 14, 2002 at 19:03:05, José Carlos wrote:
>
>>On July 14, 2002 at 18:18:32, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>
>>>On July 14, 2002 at 18:04:56, José Carlos wrote:
>>>
>>>>On July 14, 2002 at 07:03:35, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On July 14, 2002 at 04:57:21, José Carlos wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On July 14, 2002 at 01:38:40, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On July 13, 2002 at 19:05:35, José Carlos wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On July 13, 2002 at 17:16:05, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>On July 13, 2002 at 16:57:51, José Carlos wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>On July 13, 2002 at 15:09:18, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>On July 13, 2002 at 08:02:09, José Carlos wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>On July 13, 2002 at 07:15:53, Rolf Tueschen wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>On July 13, 2002 at 07:09:02, José Carlos wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On July 13, 2002 at 05:35:24, Uri Blass wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On July 12, 2002 at 19:16:31, José Carlos wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>On July 12, 2002 at 14:56:11, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Hi CCC,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>In Rebel I maintain a statistic file, on every iteration a counter is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>incremented with 1 (see column 2) representing the iteration depths Rebel has
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>searched. When a new best move is found a second counter is incremented with 1
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>(see column 3) representing how many times a new best move has been found on the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>given iteration depth, between brackets the percentage is calculated.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>As you can see the very first plies Rebel often changes to new best moves,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>however when the depth increases and increases the chance Rebel will change its
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>mind drops and drops. From 16 plies on the chance a new better move is found is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>below 2%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I wonder what this all means, it is still said (and believed by many) that a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>doubling in computer speed gives 30-50-70 elo. That could be very well true for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>lower depths but the below statistic seem to imply something totally different,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>a sharp diminishing return on deeper depths.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Interesting also is colum 4 (Big Score Changes), whenever a big score difference
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>is measured (0.50 up or down) the percentage is calculated. This item seems to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>be less sensitive than the change in best move. However the maintained "Big
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Score Changes" statistic is not fully reliable as it also counts situations like
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>being a rook or queen up (or down) in positions and naturally you get (too) many
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>big score fluctuations. I have changed that and have limit the system to scores
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>in the range of -2.50 / +2.50 but for the moment have too few games played to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>show the new statistic.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Anyway the number of positions calculated seem to be more than sufficient (over
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>100,000) to be reliable. The origin came from extensive testing the latest Rebel
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>via self-play at various time controls.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  Hi Ed, if I get this right, the second column (moves searched) is the number
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>of positions in which the program has reached the depth given by column 1. If it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>was really "moves", there would be about 3x in depth 2 than in depth 1.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  Then the idea is that many more changes happen in low depths because the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>program is there many more times, so I (ignoring "Big Changes") calculated a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>couple of other numbers:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  The ratio moves changes / moves searched and the relative % of changes from
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>ply to ply:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                 SEARCH OVERVIEW
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                 ===============
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  (A)     (B)            (C)           (D)             (E)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Depth    Moves          Moves     Moves Changed /   rel % of changes from
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>       Searched        Changed    Moves Searched    ply n-1 to n
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 1     113768         0 =  0.0%        0
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 2     113768     44241 = 38.9%    0.388870333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 3     113768     34262 = 30.1%    0.30115674        77.44%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 4     113194     32619 = 28.8%    0.288168984       95.69%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 5     113191     30697 = 27.1%    0.271196473       94.11%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 6     108633     28516 = 26.2%    0.262498504       96.79%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 7     108180     25437 = 23.5%    0.235135885       89.58%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 8     102782     22417 = 21.8%    0.218102391       92.76%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 9      82629     15400 = 18.6%    0.186375244       85.45%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>10      59032      9144 = 15.5%    0.154899038       83.11%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>11      39340      5183 = 13.2%    0.131748856       85.05%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>12      23496      2350 = 10.0%    0.100017024       75.91%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>13      12692       957 =  7.5%    0.075401828       75.39%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>14       6911       396 =  5.7%    0.057299957       75.99%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>15       4032       193 =  4.8%    0.047867063       83.54%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>16       2471        72 =  2.9%    0.029138001       60.87%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>17       1608        26 =  1.6%    0.016169154       55.49%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>18       1138        17 =  1.5%    0.014938489       92.39%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>19        921         6 =  0.7%    0.006514658       43.61%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>20        795         7 =  0.9%    0.008805031      135.16%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>21        711         1 =  0.1%    0.00140647        15.97%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>22        636         2 =  0.3%    0.003144654      223.58%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>23        574         5 =  0.9%    0.008710801      277.00%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>24        507         1 =  0.2%    0.001972387       22.64%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>25        451         3 =  0.7%    0.006651885      337.25%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>26        394         1 =  0.3%    0.002538071       38.16%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>27        343         2 =  0.6%    0.005830904      229.74%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>28        296         2 =  0.7%    0.006756757      115.88%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>29        269         0 =  0.0%    0                  0.00%
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  Column (D) means the probability at a certain position at a certain depth to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>get a change, according to your data, for a random position (I assume you chose
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>random positions, because this data comes from real games).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>No
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I assume that the positions that was searched to big depthes like 16 are only
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>positions that the program had enough time to search in the game to depth 16.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>These positions are not random positions from games.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I expect in random positions from games to see at least 10% changes at depth 16.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  It's interesting that Ed, who has been doing chess programming for a lot of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>years rely on statistical data, and you, absolute newbie to chess programming
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>can 'expect'. Quite amazing.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  José C.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>Very telling about your lack of knowledge about interdisciplinary thinking.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>  Well, you needed several hundred posts from Dann to understand the simple
>>>>>>>>>>>>concept of elo ratings. Lack of knowledge is easy to solve, while lack of
>>>>>>>>>>>>intelligence is a real problem.
>>>>>>>>>>>>  BTW, interdisciplinary thinking has nothing to do with validating intuitions
>>>>>>>>>>>>through experiments.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>  José C.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Your habits are a bit strange for CCC. You want to insult people for their
>>>>>>>>>>>intelligence? Didn't you know that this is out of fashion?
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  Did you feel insulted? Oh, sorry, I didn't insult you, really.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Also you cannot prove
>>>>>>>>>>>your visions.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  Visions? I don't have visions. Maybe you take me for someone else ?!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>But I can prove where you lack of knowledge. Look at this:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>How do you know if or when I understood Elo system? Dann didn't
>>>>>>>>>>>explain anything to _me_,
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  Don't feel bad because Dann had to explain that to you. It can happen to
>>>>>>>>>>everybody.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>He was the only one having the courage to give his verdict about SSDF
>>>>>>>>>>>Elo system - _with_ me! We two the only ones. And you were dreaming of his role
>>>>>>>>>>>as _my_ teacher? That's funny.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  I'm glad you enjoied Dann's lessons. Dann is very good at that. I also always
>>>>>>>>>>enjoy his posts.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>You do not  understand what validity means... ;-)
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  Good argument!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>You have no idea of what interdisciplinary means too.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  Damn, you leave me without words!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>You are the typical expert
>>>>>>>>>>>with narrow views.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  Thanks for calling me expert... bah, just a little degree in computer science
>>>>>>>>>>and a few publications don't make me an expert...
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Do not insult Uri.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  I didn't. He knows it.
>>>>>>>>>>  BTW, do you feel the need to defend him? Don't you think he is capable to
>>>>>>>>>>defend himself? I think it's you who is insulting Uri.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Because he knows a lot about chess.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  The first thing where we agree! Cheers!
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Know
>>>>>>>>>>>what I mean? Chess is the basis for computerchess. :)
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  Words of wisdom...
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Only interdisciplinary help could enlighten you. If you have questions, please
>>>>>>>>>>>tell me, I'll try to do my best for you.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  Thank you very much. I'll ask you anything I don't understand.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>  José C.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>No reason to become so upset only because I told you not to insult Uri.
>>>>>>>>>You have insulted him on his lack of intelligence
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>  Uri knows I didn't. It seems _you_ are not capable to understand. I'm sorry,
>>>>>>>>I'm not gonna explain _you_ what I said to Uri. He understood. That's enough.
>>>>>>>>Please, stop defending him from nothing.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>You did not insult me for lack of intelligence but you said that you find it
>>>>>>>strange that I disagree with Ed when Ed has a lot of experience about chess
>>>>>>>programming and I am new in the task of chess programming.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I think that the fact that I am new in chess programming was not relevant for
>>>>>>>the discussion because I do not need to be a programmer to have an opinion about
>>>>>>>data that everyone can see after hours of analyzing.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I doubt if Ed has more experience than me in giving programs hours to analyze
>>>>>>>and looking if the program changes it's mind.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>The data that Ed gave is from games and if programs can get depth 16
>>>>>>>in games then the position is relatively simple so the program usually does not
>>>>>>>change it's mind.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Note that I believe in diminishing returns but I still expect significant gain
>>>>>>>from hardare in the near future.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I believe that the difference in comp-comp games at 24 hours per move may be
>>>>>>>only 40 elo from doubling the speed and not 70 elo but 40 elo is still
>>>>>>>significant.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Uri
>>>>>>
>>>>>>  My comment was about you "expecting" where Ed was providing experimental data,
>>>>>>nothing more nothing less. Then I asked you for data, you posted some logs and I
>>>>>>find them interesting. That's all. Rolf just invented some nonsense to create
>>>>>>mess. That's his style.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>  José C.
>>>>>
>>>>>Some people find it helpful to crucify the reporter who reported their own
>>>>>mistakes. That is telling! You brought the indecent argument that Ed were
>>>>>programmer and Uri NOT. That alone is telling. Because the one had nothing
>>>>>to do with the other in the question that was debated here.
>>>>
>>>>  Uri understood it. I've already explained it to you. I won't explain it again.
>>>>I'm not so patient as Dann.
>>>
>>>Another change of the truth. Uri wrote the almost exact phrase I addressed to
>>>you. Period.
>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Even now you didn't have the "idea" to apologize.
>>>>
>>>>  _You_ should apologize. But I don't care at all what you do. You want to mess
>>>>and you do it. Well, if you enjoy that...
>>>
>>>You should stop to project your character onto others. Period.
>>
>>  _You_ should. Period.
>>
>>>>
>>>>>Instead you created a new
>>>>>insult against me. I should be responsible for the mess you brought yourself
>>>>>into. That is telling! Very telling.
>>>>>
>>>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>>>
>>>>  You keep on looking at the mirror, instead of looking at me. Your words tell
>>>>about yourself. I find it funny.
>>>
>>>This is the proof. Your confession that you find it funny, you enjoy it.
>>
>>  Yes, I confess I enjoy seeing yourself talking to the mirror.
>>
>>>You enjoy a mess.
>>
>>  No I don't. I've been posting here for some years. People know I don't. Nobody
>>believes your lies.
>>
>>>_Your_ mess.
>>
>>  Again talking to the mirror.
>>
>>>All what I did was the reporting and the warning that
>>>you should stop it and apologize to Uri. Now you are confused about yourself.
>>>Again, that could be healed by your apology. To Uri, not me of course. I'm just
>>>the observer, you cannot insult me at all.
>>
>>  Again talking to the mirror.
>>
>>>For the readers I repeat what you did wrong.
>>
>>  First you defend Uri (implying he can't himself), now you care for the
>>readers. Man, you must be a saint.
>>
>>>You attacked Uri by telling him
>>>that he were no programmer
>>
>>  Stop this fantasy, please. I know Uri wrote Movei, which is quickly improving.
>>Why do you think Uri is no programmer?
>>
>>>and he still dared to differ from Ed, who were a
>>>programmer indeed, with opinions.
>>
>>  I repeat I'm not so patient as Dann to explain this again to you. Read
>>previous post for an explanation or keep showing your unability to understand it
>>again and again.
>>
>>>This attack is indecent and should not
>>>be done here in CCC.
>>
>>  Good! Now you give me lessons how to behave in a forum! I'm so interested.
>>I'll search rgcc archives for more lessons.
>>
>>>Rolf Tueschen
>>
>>  José C.
>
>Here is what Uri wrote to you:
>
>"You did not insult me for lack of intelligence but you said that you find it
>strange that I disagree with Ed when Ed has a lot of experience about chess
>programming and I am new in the task of chess programming."

  Nothing to add to what Uri said. It's crystal clear.

>Again, bringing forward such arguments is indecent.

  Really? Your above statement says: experiece doesn't count at all and it is
indecent to make conclusions out of it. People can draw their own conclusions
about your seriousness.

>Saying one is programmer and
>a very experienced one and the other not so experienced or beginner and so on.

  So what? I'm a begginer to chess programming also. The programs I write in my
work have nothing to do with chess, so I only have Averno as a hobby. So what
now? Do you think I'm insulting myself? Are you gonna defend me from me? :)

>And you did the same with me in older discussion about SSDF and Elo and also
>now.

  Again. Don't feel insulted because Dann had to explain you how Elo system
works.

>The truth is that statistics and things like that have nothing to do with
>computerchess programming qualities.

  That's a good proof of how much do you know about computerchess and
statistics. Well, maybe Dann didn't explain it so well after all.

>This is not my own opinion, it's a simple truth.

  Oh, yes. You don't have opinions, you have simple truths.

>Good idea to search rgcc. In special read my messages from August 2001 on.
>All the old stuff from 1996 to 1998 is expressed by a virtually 22 y.
>old young man, what many people misunderstood.

  :)
  "I'm not wrong. People don't understand me". Good argument.

>Please read also my Mosaik on
>Schachcomputerwelt, in German unfortunately. The address is
>http://members.aol.com/mclanecxantia/myhomepage/rolfsmosaik.html

  Sorry, I don't speak german (lack of knowledge?).

>You may have the final word. Because you are a chessprogrammer. ;)

  No, please, don't leave me with the final word. Continue stating your simple
truths.

>Rolf Tueschen

  José C.



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