Author: Mark Young
Date: 23:35:23 08/09/98
Go up one level in this thread
On August 09, 1998 at 22:49:00, blass uri wrote: > >On August 09, 1998 at 12:11:23, Mark Young wrote: > >>On August 08, 1998 at 14:27:17, odell hall wrote: >> >>>Are their currently any opinion polls as to the outcome of the marovic ferret >>>match? If not I would like to start with Mine, I perdict that in a six game >>>match Ferret will score atleast 3 points!!! >> >>Here is an expectancy rating for all possible scores in Morovic vs Ferret Match. >>This will help people predict possible scores for the match. >> >>GM Morovic rating 2605 >> >>Ferrets rating Unknown >> >>Points for ferret % P-rating for Ferret. >> >>0 0 < 1870 Fish >> >>1/2 8 2213 Master >> >>1 16 2326 Close to IM >> >>1 1/2 25 2416 IM >> >>2 33 2483 Strong IM-Weak GM >> >>2 1/2 42 2544 Solid GM >> >>3 50 2605 Strong GM >> >>3 1/2 58 2666 Super-GM >> >>4 67 2727 WC-contender >> >>4 1/2 75 2794 WC >> >>5 83 2873 Bruce demands Match with Kasparov >> >>5 1/2 92 2997 Bruce declares Ferret WC >> >>6 100 > 3340 Bruce found missing. Kasparov >> flees country >I do not agree > >I believe Morovic can win 6:0 2200 programs >so I cannot believe Ferret's rating is <1870 if it loses 6:0 > I did not pull the numbers out of a hat. That is the expectancy ratings. The odds would say that a 0-6 result for ferret is not too likely. But could happen. Remember this is an expectancy rating not a true rating. Its only 6 games. If you think Ferret is a strong IM then the Expected result or best odds favor a 2-4 result for ferret. But anything can happen in a short match. Its possible but not likley that if ferret is 2400 rated it could win the match by 6-0, but it would be a long shot to say the least. Now if the match were 100 games long and Morovic won 100-0 then it would be pretty good odds that ferret is below 1870 or Morovic rating is much higher then 2605. The more games that are played the more they should fall into the expected range. >Uri
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