Author: blass uri
Date: 00:28:27 08/10/98
Go up one level in this thread
On August 10, 1998 at 02:35:23, Mark Young wrote: >On August 09, 1998 at 22:49:00, blass uri wrote: > >> >>On August 09, 1998 at 12:11:23, Mark Young wrote: >> >>>On August 08, 1998 at 14:27:17, odell hall wrote: >>> >>>>Are their currently any opinion polls as to the outcome of the marovic ferret >>>>match? If not I would like to start with Mine, I perdict that in a six game >>>>match Ferret will score atleast 3 points!!! >>> >>>Here is an expectancy rating for all possible scores in Morovic vs Ferret Match. >>>This will help people predict possible scores for the match. >>> >>>GM Morovic rating 2605 >>> >>>Ferrets rating Unknown >>> >>>Points for ferret % P-rating for Ferret. >>> >>>0 0 < 1870 Fish >>> >>>1/2 8 2213 Master >>> >>>1 16 2326 Close to IM >>> >>>1 1/2 25 2416 IM >>> >>>2 33 2483 Strong IM-Weak GM >>> >>>2 1/2 42 2544 Solid GM >>> >>>3 50 2605 Strong GM >>> >>>3 1/2 58 2666 Super-GM >>> >>>4 67 2727 WC-contender >>> >>>4 1/2 75 2794 WC >>> >>>5 83 2873 Bruce demands Match with Kasparov >>> >>>5 1/2 92 2997 Bruce declares Ferret WC >>> >>>6 100 > 3340 Bruce found missing. Kasparov >>> flees country >>I do not agree >> >>I believe Morovic can win 6:0 2200 programs >>so I cannot believe Ferret's rating is > >I did not pull the numbers out of a hat. That is the expectancy ratings. The >odds would say that a 0-6 result for ferret is not too likely. But could happen. >Remember this is an expectancy rating not a true rating. Its only 6 games. If >you think Ferret is a strong IM then the Expected result or best odds favor a >2-4 result for ferret. But anything can happen in a short match. Its possible >but not likley that if ferret is 2400 rated it could win the match by 6-0, but >it would be a long shot to say the least. Now if the match were 100 games long >and Morovic won 100-0 then it would be pretty good odds that ferret is below >1870 or Morovic rating is much higher then 2605. The more games that are played >the more they should fall into the expected range. >>Uri The varience of the level of computers is lower so I think the result of programs should be higher Computer programs will win in higher results against weak opponent and lose in highr result against strong opponents. I believe Morovic has good chance to win 100:0 programs with rating 2200. Uri
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