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Subject: Re: Any Perdictions on the Marovic Ferret match?

Author: blass uri

Date: 00:28:27 08/10/98

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On August 10, 1998 at 02:35:23, Mark Young wrote:

>On August 09, 1998 at 22:49:00, blass uri wrote:
>
>>
>>On August 09, 1998 at 12:11:23, Mark Young wrote:
>>
>>>On August 08, 1998 at 14:27:17, odell hall wrote:
>>>
>>>>Are their currently any opinion polls as to the outcome of the marovic ferret
>>>>match? If not I would like to start with Mine, I perdict that in a six game
>>>>match Ferret will score atleast 3 points!!!
>>>
>>>Here is an expectancy rating for all possible scores in Morovic vs Ferret Match.
>>>This will help people predict possible scores for the match.
>>>
>>>GM Morovic rating 2605
>>>
>>>Ferrets rating Unknown
>>>
>>>Points for ferret    %          P-rating for Ferret.
>>>
>>>0                    0          < 1870         Fish
>>>
>>>1/2                  8          2213           Master
>>>
>>>1                    16         2326           Close to IM
>>>
>>>1 1/2                25         2416           IM
>>>
>>>2                    33         2483           Strong IM-Weak GM
>>>
>>>2 1/2                42         2544           Solid GM
>>>
>>>3                    50         2605           Strong GM
>>>
>>>3 1/2                58         2666           Super-GM
>>>
>>>4                    67         2727           WC-contender
>>>
>>>4 1/2                75         2794           WC
>>>
>>>5                    83         2873           Bruce demands Match with Kasparov
>>>
>>>5 1/2                92         2997           Bruce declares Ferret WC
>>>
>>>6                    100        > 3340         Bruce found missing. Kasparov
>>>                                               flees country
>>I do not agree
>>
>>I believe Morovic can win 6:0 2200 programs
>>so I cannot believe Ferret's rating is >
>I did not pull the numbers out of a hat. That is the expectancy ratings. The
>odds would say that a 0-6 result for ferret is not too likely. But could happen.
>Remember this is an expectancy rating not a true rating. Its only 6 games. If
>you think Ferret is a strong IM then the Expected result or best odds favor a
>2-4 result for ferret. But anything can happen in a short match. Its possible
>but not likley that if ferret is 2400 rated it could win the match by 6-0, but
>it would be a long shot to say the least. Now if the match were 100 games long
>and Morovic won 100-0 then it would be pretty good odds that ferret is below
>1870 or Morovic rating is much higher then 2605. The more games that are played
>the more they should fall into the expected range.
>>Uri
The varience of the level of computers is lower so I think the result of
programs should be higher

Computer programs will win in higher results against weak opponent and lose in
highr result against strong opponents.
I believe Morovic has good chance to win 100:0 programs
with rating 2200.

Uri



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