Author: Mark Young
Date: 06:22:03 08/10/98
Go up one level in this thread
On August 10, 1998 at 03:28:27, blass uri wrote: > >On August 10, 1998 at 02:35:23, Mark Young wrote: > >>On August 09, 1998 at 22:49:00, blass uri wrote: >> >>> >>>On August 09, 1998 at 12:11:23, Mark Young wrote: >>> >>>>On August 08, 1998 at 14:27:17, odell hall wrote: >>>> >>>>>Are their currently any opinion polls as to the outcome of the marovic ferret >>>>>match? If not I would like to start with Mine, I perdict that in a six game >>>>>match Ferret will score atleast 3 points!!! >>>> >>>>Here is an expectancy rating for all possible scores in Morovic vs Ferret Match. >>>>This will help people predict possible scores for the match. >>>> >>>>GM Morovic rating 2605 >>>> >>>>Ferrets rating Unknown >>>> >>>>Points for ferret % P-rating for Ferret. >>>> >>>>0 0 < 1870 Fish >>>> >>>>1/2 8 2213 Master >>>> >>>>1 16 2326 Close to IM >>>> >>>>1 1/2 25 2416 IM >>>> >>>>2 33 2483 Strong IM-Weak GM >>>> >>>>2 1/2 42 2544 Solid GM >>>> >>>>3 50 2605 Strong GM >>>> >>>>3 1/2 58 2666 Super-GM >>>> >>>>4 67 2727 WC-contender >>>> >>>>4 1/2 75 2794 WC >>>> >>>>5 83 2873 Bruce demands Match with Kasparov >>>> >>>>5 1/2 92 2997 Bruce declares Ferret WC >>>> >>>>6 100 > 3340 Bruce found missing. Kasparov >>>> flees country >>>I do not agree >>> >>>I believe Morovic can win 6:0 2200 programs >>>so I cannot believe Ferret's rating is > >>I did not pull the numbers out of a hat. That is the expectancy ratings. The >>odds would say that a 0-6 result for ferret is not too likely. But could happen. >>Remember this is an expectancy rating not a true rating. Its only 6 games. If >>you think Ferret is a strong IM then the Expected result or best odds favor a >>2-4 result for ferret. But anything can happen in a short match. Its possible >>but not likley that if ferret is 2400 rated it could win the match by 6-0, but >>it would be a long shot to say the least. Now if the match were 100 games long >>and Morovic won 100-0 then it would be pretty good odds that ferret is below >>1870 or Morovic rating is much higher then 2605. The more games that are played >>the more they should fall into the expected range. >>>Uri >The varience of the level of computers is lower so I think the result of >programs should be higher > >Computer programs will win in higher results against weak opponent and lose in >highr result against strong opponents. >I believe Morovic has good chance to win 100:0 programs >with rating 2200. > How do you know that. I don't recall that many matches at 40/2 between a modern strong computer like ferret, and a strong GM. And the matches that I do know like Rebel vs Anand and Deep Blue vs Kasparov say you are wrong. If you have data to back up your point please post it so I can see it. Believing is one thing, knowing is another. Lets let the games play out and see what happens. >Uri
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