Author: blass uri
Date: 07:11:54 08/10/98
Go up one level in this thread
On August 10, 1998 at 09:22:03, Mark Young wrote: >On August 10, 1998 at 03:28:27, blass uri wrote: > >> >>On August 10, 1998 at 02:35:23, Mark Young wrote: >> >>>On August 09, 1998 at 22:49:00, blass uri wrote: >>> >>>> >>>>On August 09, 1998 at 12:11:23, Mark Young wrote: >>>> >>>>>On August 08, 1998 at 14:27:17, odell hall wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>Are their currently any opinion polls as to the outcome of the marovic ferret >>>>>>match? If not I would like to start with Mine, I perdict that in a six game >>>>>>match Ferret will score atleast 3 points!!! >>>>> >>>>>Here is an expectancy rating for all possible scores in Morovic vs Ferret Match. >>>>>This will help people predict possible scores for the match. >>>>> >>>>>GM Morovic rating 2605 >>>>> >>>>>Ferrets rating Unknown >>>>> >>>>>Points for ferret % P-rating for Ferret. >>>>> >>>>>0 0 < 1870 Fish >>>>> >>>>>1/2 8 2213 Master >>>>> >>>>>1 16 2326 Close to IM >>>>> >>>>>1 1/2 25 2416 IM >>>>> >>>>>2 33 2483 Strong IM-Weak GM >>>>> >>>>>2 1/2 42 2544 Solid GM >>>>> >>>>>3 50 2605 Strong GM >>>>> >>>>>3 1/2 58 2666 Super-GM >>>>> >>>>>4 67 2727 WC-contender >>>>> >>>>>4 1/2 75 2794 WC >>>>> >>>>>5 83 2873 Bruce demands Match with Kasparov >>>>> >>>>>5 1/2 92 2997 Bruce declares Ferret WC >>>>> >>>>>6 100 > 3340 Bruce found missing. Kasparov >>>>> flees country >>>>I do not agree >>>> >>>>I believe Morovic can win 6:0 2200 programs >>>>so I cannot believe Ferret's rating is > >>>I did not pull the numbers out of a hat. That is the expectancy ratings. The >>>odds would say that a 0-6 result for ferret is not too likely. But could happen. >>>Remember this is an expectancy rating not a true rating. Its only 6 games. If >>>you think Ferret is a strong IM then the Expected result or best odds favor a >>>2-4 result for ferret. But anything can happen in a short match. Its possible >>>but not likley that if ferret is 2400 rated it could win the match by 6-0, but >>>it would be a long shot to say the least. Now if the match were 100 games long >>>and Morovic won 100-0 then it would be pretty good odds that ferret is below >>>1870 or Morovic rating is much higher then 2605. The more games that are played >>>the more they should fall into the expected range. >>>>Uri >>The varience of the level of computers is lower so I think the result of >>programs should be higher >> >>Computer programs will win in higher results against weak opponent and lose in >>highr result against strong opponents. >>I believe Morovic has good chance to win 100:0 programs >>with rating 2200. >> >How do you know that. I don't recall that many matches at 40/2 between a modern >strong computer like ferret, and a strong GM. And the matches that I do know >like Rebel vs Anand and Deep Blue vs Kasparov say you are wrong. They do not say I am wrong because the difference between Anand and Rebel10 or kasparov and deep blue is less than the difference between Morovic and 2200 players. Uri > If you have >data to back up your point please post it so I can see it. Believing is one >thing, knowing is another. Lets let the games play out and see what happens. >>Uri
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