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Subject: Re: Any Perdictions on the Marovic Ferret match?

Author: blass uri

Date: 07:11:54 08/10/98

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On August 10, 1998 at 09:22:03, Mark Young wrote:

>On August 10, 1998 at 03:28:27, blass uri wrote:
>
>>
>>On August 10, 1998 at 02:35:23, Mark Young wrote:
>>
>>>On August 09, 1998 at 22:49:00, blass uri wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>On August 09, 1998 at 12:11:23, Mark Young wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On August 08, 1998 at 14:27:17, odell hall wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>Are their currently any opinion polls as to the outcome of the marovic ferret
>>>>>>match? If not I would like to start with Mine, I perdict that in a six game
>>>>>>match Ferret will score atleast 3 points!!!
>>>>>
>>>>>Here is an expectancy rating for all possible scores in Morovic vs Ferret Match.
>>>>>This will help people predict possible scores for the match.
>>>>>
>>>>>GM Morovic rating 2605
>>>>>
>>>>>Ferrets rating Unknown
>>>>>
>>>>>Points for ferret    %          P-rating for Ferret.
>>>>>
>>>>>0                    0          < 1870         Fish
>>>>>
>>>>>1/2                  8          2213           Master
>>>>>
>>>>>1                    16         2326           Close to IM
>>>>>
>>>>>1 1/2                25         2416           IM
>>>>>
>>>>>2                    33         2483           Strong IM-Weak GM
>>>>>
>>>>>2 1/2                42         2544           Solid GM
>>>>>
>>>>>3                    50         2605           Strong GM
>>>>>
>>>>>3 1/2                58         2666           Super-GM
>>>>>
>>>>>4                    67         2727           WC-contender
>>>>>
>>>>>4 1/2                75         2794           WC
>>>>>
>>>>>5                    83         2873           Bruce demands Match with Kasparov
>>>>>
>>>>>5 1/2                92         2997           Bruce declares Ferret WC
>>>>>
>>>>>6                    100        > 3340         Bruce found missing. Kasparov
>>>>>                                               flees country
>>>>I do not agree
>>>>
>>>>I believe Morovic can win 6:0 2200 programs
>>>>so I cannot believe Ferret's rating is >
>>>I did not pull the numbers out of a hat. That is the expectancy ratings. The
>>>odds would say that a 0-6 result for ferret is not too likely. But could happen.
>>>Remember this is an expectancy rating not a true rating. Its only 6 games. If
>>>you think Ferret is a strong IM then the Expected result or best odds favor a
>>>2-4 result for ferret. But anything can happen in a short match. Its possible
>>>but not likley that if ferret is 2400 rated it could win the match by 6-0, but
>>>it would be a long shot to say the least. Now if the match were 100 games long
>>>and Morovic won 100-0 then it would be pretty good odds that ferret is below
>>>1870 or Morovic rating is much higher then 2605. The more games that are played
>>>the more they should fall into the expected range.
>>>>Uri
>>The varience of the level of computers is lower so I think the result of
>>programs should be higher
>>
>>Computer programs will win in higher results against weak opponent and lose in
>>highr result against strong opponents.
>>I believe Morovic has good chance to win 100:0 programs
>>with rating 2200.
>>
>How do you know that. I don't recall that many matches at 40/2 between a modern
>strong computer like ferret, and a strong GM. And the matches that I do know
>like Rebel vs Anand and Deep Blue vs Kasparov say you are wrong.

They do not say I am wrong because the difference between
Anand and Rebel10 or kasparov and deep blue is less than the difference between
Morovic and 2200 players.

Uri

> If you have
>data to back up your point please post it so I can see it. Believing is one
>thing, knowing is another. Lets let the games play out and see what happens.
>>Uri



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