Author: Mark Young
Date: 07:58:48 08/10/98
Go up one level in this thread
On August 10, 1998 at 10:11:54, blass uri wrote: > >On August 10, 1998 at 09:22:03, Mark Young wrote: > >>On August 10, 1998 at 03:28:27, blass uri wrote: >> >>> >>>On August 10, 1998 at 02:35:23, Mark Young wrote: >>> >>>>On August 09, 1998 at 22:49:00, blass uri wrote: >>>> >>>>> >>>>>On August 09, 1998 at 12:11:23, Mark Young wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On August 08, 1998 at 14:27:17, odell hall wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>Are their currently any opinion polls as to the outcome of the marovic ferret >>>>>>>match? If not I would like to start with Mine, I perdict that in a six game >>>>>>>match Ferret will score atleast 3 points!!! >>>>>> >>>>>>Here is an expectancy rating for all possible scores in Morovic vs Ferret Match. >>>>>>This will help people predict possible scores for the match. >>>>>> >>>>>>GM Morovic rating 2605 >>>>>> >>>>>>Ferrets rating Unknown >>>>>> >>>>>>Points for ferret % P-rating for Ferret. >>>>>> >>>>>>0 0 < 1870 Fish >>>>>> >>>>>>1/2 8 2213 Master >>>>>> >>>>>>1 16 2326 Close to IM >>>>>> >>>>>>1 1/2 25 2416 IM >>>>>> >>>>>>2 33 2483 Strong IM-Weak GM >>>>>> >>>>>>2 1/2 42 2544 Solid GM >>>>>> >>>>>>3 50 2605 Strong GM >>>>>> >>>>>>3 1/2 58 2666 Super-GM >>>>>> >>>>>>4 67 2727 WC-contender >>>>>> >>>>>>4 1/2 75 2794 WC >>>>>> >>>>>>5 83 2873 Bruce demands Match with Kasparov >>>>>> >>>>>>5 1/2 92 2997 Bruce declares Ferret WC >>>>>> >>>>>>6 100 > 3340 Bruce found missing. Kasparov >>>>>> flees country >>>>>I do not agree >>>>> >>>>>I believe Morovic can win 6:0 2200 programs >>>>>so I cannot believe Ferret's rating is > >>>>I did not pull the numbers out of a hat. That is the expectancy ratings. The >>>>odds would say that a 0-6 result for ferret is not too likely. But could happen. >>>>Remember this is an expectancy rating not a true rating. Its only 6 games. If >>>>you think Ferret is a strong IM then the Expected result or best odds favor a >>>>2-4 result for ferret. But anything can happen in a short match. Its possible >>>>but not likley that if ferret is 2400 rated it could win the match by 6-0, but >>>>it would be a long shot to say the least. Now if the match were 100 games long >>>>and Morovic won 100-0 then it would be pretty good odds that ferret is below >>>>1870 or Morovic rating is much higher then 2605. The more games that are played >>>>the more they should fall into the expected range. >>>>>Uri >>>The varience of the level of computers is lower so I think the result of >>>programs should be higher >>> >>>Computer programs will win in higher results against weak opponent and lose in >>>highr result against strong opponents. >>>I believe Morovic has good chance to win 100:0 programs >>>with rating 2200. >>> >>How do you know that. I don't recall that many matches at 40/2 between a modern >>strong computer like ferret, and a strong GM. And the matches that I do know >>like Rebel vs Anand and Deep Blue vs Kasparov say you are wrong. > >They do not say I am wrong because the difference between >Anand and Rebel10 or kasparov and deep blue is less than the difference between >Morovic and 2200 players. > Ok I will give you that. Now show me the data that says you are right. What games do you have between a 2200 rated computer and a 2605 rated Grandmaster at 40/2. That proves your point. Don't explain it, show me the data that says this is true. Like I said. Thinking is one thing, Knowing is another. If you show me the data I will agree with you. Unlike Thorsten I am a bean counter. If the data shows you are right, I will say so. >Uri > >> If you have >>data to back up your point please post it so I can see it. Believing is one >>thing, knowing is another. Lets let the games play out and see what happens. >>>Uri
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