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Subject: Re: Any Perdictions on the Marovic Ferret match?

Author: Mark Young

Date: 07:58:48 08/10/98

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On August 10, 1998 at 10:11:54, blass uri wrote:

>
>On August 10, 1998 at 09:22:03, Mark Young wrote:
>
>>On August 10, 1998 at 03:28:27, blass uri wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>On August 10, 1998 at 02:35:23, Mark Young wrote:
>>>
>>>>On August 09, 1998 at 22:49:00, blass uri wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>On August 09, 1998 at 12:11:23, Mark Young wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On August 08, 1998 at 14:27:17, odell hall wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Are their currently any opinion polls as to the outcome of the marovic ferret
>>>>>>>match? If not I would like to start with Mine, I perdict that in a six game
>>>>>>>match Ferret will score atleast 3 points!!!
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Here is an expectancy rating for all possible scores in Morovic vs Ferret Match.
>>>>>>This will help people predict possible scores for the match.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>GM Morovic rating 2605
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Ferrets rating Unknown
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Points for ferret    %          P-rating for Ferret.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>0                    0          < 1870         Fish
>>>>>>
>>>>>>1/2                  8          2213           Master
>>>>>>
>>>>>>1                    16         2326           Close to IM
>>>>>>
>>>>>>1 1/2                25         2416           IM
>>>>>>
>>>>>>2                    33         2483           Strong IM-Weak GM
>>>>>>
>>>>>>2 1/2                42         2544           Solid GM
>>>>>>
>>>>>>3                    50         2605           Strong GM
>>>>>>
>>>>>>3 1/2                58         2666           Super-GM
>>>>>>
>>>>>>4                    67         2727           WC-contender
>>>>>>
>>>>>>4 1/2                75         2794           WC
>>>>>>
>>>>>>5                    83         2873           Bruce demands Match with Kasparov
>>>>>>
>>>>>>5 1/2                92         2997           Bruce declares Ferret WC
>>>>>>
>>>>>>6                    100        > 3340         Bruce found missing. Kasparov
>>>>>>                                               flees country
>>>>>I do not agree
>>>>>
>>>>>I believe Morovic can win 6:0 2200 programs
>>>>>so I cannot believe Ferret's rating is >
>>>>I did not pull the numbers out of a hat. That is the expectancy ratings. The
>>>>odds would say that a 0-6 result for ferret is not too likely. But could happen.
>>>>Remember this is an expectancy rating not a true rating. Its only 6 games. If
>>>>you think Ferret is a strong IM then the Expected result or best odds favor a
>>>>2-4 result for ferret. But anything can happen in a short match. Its possible
>>>>but not likley that if ferret is 2400 rated it could win the match by 6-0, but
>>>>it would be a long shot to say the least. Now if the match were 100 games long
>>>>and Morovic won 100-0 then it would be pretty good odds that ferret is below
>>>>1870 or Morovic rating is much higher then 2605. The more games that are played
>>>>the more they should fall into the expected range.
>>>>>Uri
>>>The varience of the level of computers is lower so I think the result of
>>>programs should be higher
>>>
>>>Computer programs will win in higher results against weak opponent and lose in
>>>highr result against strong opponents.
>>>I believe Morovic has good chance to win 100:0 programs
>>>with rating 2200.
>>>
>>How do you know that. I don't recall that many matches at 40/2 between a modern
>>strong computer like ferret, and a strong GM. And the matches that I do know
>>like Rebel vs Anand and Deep Blue vs Kasparov say you are wrong.
>
>They do not say I am wrong because the difference between
>Anand and Rebel10 or kasparov and deep blue is less than the difference between
>Morovic and 2200 players.
>
Ok I will give you that. Now show me the data that says you are right. What
games do you have between a 2200 rated computer and a 2605 rated Grandmaster at
40/2. That proves your point. Don't explain it, show me the data that says this
is true. Like I said. Thinking is one thing, Knowing is another. If you show me
the data I will agree with you. Unlike Thorsten I am a bean counter. If the data
shows you are right, I will say so.
>Uri
>
>> If you have
>>data to back up your point please post it so I can see it. Believing is one
>>thing, knowing is another. Lets let the games play out and see what happens.
>>>Uri



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