Author: Vincent Diepeveen
Date: 09:21:51 08/05/02
Go up one level in this thread
On August 05, 2002 at 11:10:55, Terry McCracken wrote:
>Do computers make decisions?
>If so, what is your definition of a "computer decision" and how it relates and
>differs from human decisions?
First question: yes computer can make decisions.
Secondly, decision taking of a computer is very simple always.
It's either TRUE, or it is FALSE. Taking into account the patterns as
a 'true' or 'false'. Even the 'fuzzy logics' is based upon a true false
logics, because if it gets above a bound, then it's either true or false.
Human differs in this from next
- a intelligent non bound related decision taking
- b taking sometimes other factors into account which aren't 'programmed',
let's call it 'intelligent error correction'.
- c based upon feeling some decisions get taken which aren't explainable
by patterns or logical rules
Best and easiest examples we can see in the traffic.
To start with the b suppose we approach a traffic crossing.
and we get from the right. Now because in a part of this world
traffic at an equal crossing from the right doesn't go first,
let's be clear here: there is a traffic rule which says: "traffic
from the right goes first."
If an accident happens the guy from the left is guilty. Easy.
So a computer will perhaps approach carefully a crossing as it has a
rule that if there is indication that traffic from other directions can't
see it well, that it has to stop. However these patterns can go wrong.
suppose for some reason that someone walking on your right is just pushing
his 'laying down' bicycle which prevents you or the camera to see well
at the crossing. Not easy to catch for a computer!
Suppose the camera detecting whether there comes traffic from the right
is going bad. A human will know directly that if his eye is hurting right
at that moment that he has to approach carefully. A computer needs a zillion
sensors and still is unable to detect the same thing. It could be something
from a tree that's just getting in front of the camera for example!
There are technical solutions possible to some point here.
But now let's get more vague. I get from the right, somehow i feel
that the guy from the left has not seen me, so i wait till the guy has
passed. Or there is a bunch of black dark cars and not so happy people
in the cars. I smell from a distance someone gets burried, so i wait.
Especially older people who bury old friends and are following such a
funeral possession, they see nothing of course and expect to go first.
Legally the computer which comes from the right goes first. No discussions
there.
More problems here. 200 meters away from here there is a fire brigade.
There are good reasons for it to be located here in the center. It's close
to a N233 which goes to the highway, connecting this 60k town with the
people living between the river Rhine (250k people and a few million cattle).
So pretty busy road.
It's the only road to go to that area, and the closest hospital is on that
road and can't treat all wounded.
In short, what happens a lot is if i just see a flash of blue, i'm already
going to the right on the highway. Of course voicerecognition doesn't work
always. Both firebrigade AND hospital cars (ambulances)
have the habit to only carry the blue light.
Truckdrivers on this road, i have seen them doing the most incredible
manoeuvres in order to allow especially the hospital cars to pass without
stopping them speeding.
Going to between the rivers is 8 miles from here. I don't need to mention
that those hospital cars are SPEEDING. If you speed a lot on a trip of
in total 12 miles, then that can save lives.
However the sneaky thing is: this road is going a bit from the left to
the right. Trees on the left and right. Allowed speed 50KM/hour. Typical
ambulance speed: 100KM/hour, more if there is little traffic. Divide by
1.6 for miles/hour.
This road is flooded with Trucks always, not only cars.
If cars don't go a lot to the left and right, then forget hospital
cars saving time to save lives. No way to pass. Also they have to do an
emergency stop. We talk about flashes of seconds here that suddenly on
a road where normally only 2 trucks can pass, now there must pass 2 +
hospital car.
How's any computer going to smell it better go a lot to the left if
the guys behind you already do this, because you *cannot* see the car
coming.
POLITE IN THE TRAFFIC
On the other hand the road is very busy, like all roads in the netherlands.
Usually minutes to wait for the traffic lights. If the car behind me is
going a bit to the right, i smell already he wants to turn right a few
hundreds of meters further. So i go to the left then and let him pass on the
right, even though it's a narrow road.
Chess compared to traffic is real easy, seemingly.
However if we take into account how little a grandmaster calculates compared
to a computer. It's *proven* simply that a grandmaster is seeing less.
For example after queen captures pawn, pawn captures queen, he doesn't even
*consider* this line.
In some other line he DOES consider it, because he smells there is something
going on somewhere on the board. In post mortems i'm always amazed how little
GMs can explain from what they have seen.
This is probably why the best trainers in the world are usually NOT
grandmasters. In whole the world you can count the number of GMs who can
EXPLAIN why they played a certain move, without using 'i felt that..',
you can count them on one hand.
In netherlands there for sure is none.
We've got 13 GMs. In USA perhaps 2 to 4 (Seirawan, Kreiman, and a few
very old GMs who do not play active).
I can compile a long list of IMs and FMs though who can explain *every*
move they played in a game. I'm one of them.
Of course only tactical blunders also get
explained with human words... ...'i panicced'.
>Please cite examples. This can be from chess to any area of so-called "machine
>intelligence", please give _your_ answers, as well as information that can be
>obtained on the net.
>
>Your help with these answers will be greatly appreciated!
>
>Thanks in Advance.
>
>Regards,
> Terry McCracken
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